Two Men Enter... One Man Leaves!

Thunderdog · Apr 20, 2009

Quote from Cutten:

I agree but there is no reason why a prediction can't incorporate probabilities...

When you say "probabilities," I assume numeric specificity. How do you arrive at a probability distribution of future outcomes?

marketsurfer · Apr 20, 2009

Quote from Thunderdog:

When you say "probabilities," I assume numeric specificity. How do you arrive at a probability distribution of future outcomes?

all probability distributions are for the future.

Thunderdog · Apr 20, 2009

Quote from marketsurfer:

all probability distributions are for the future.

Your comment does not answer the question.

MandelbrotSet · Apr 20, 2009

Quote from William Rennick:

Keep it clean Fellas, port dialed 911 about this thread.

Oh so now you tell us! :eek:

It was your charts that got this thread sent to chit-chat ... and that was some really funny shit too, I might add.

MandelbrotSet · Apr 20, 2009

Quote from ElCubano:

They assume that because you are betting on a direction that you think you have to be right..

So then taking a trade can also be useless if it doesnt make you a profit...why take the trade??

the biggest money has been made on betting and throwing money at a direction. If and when it pans out...

You aren't betting on a direction.

You are betting on your edge.

It is your edge that makes you profitable (or lack of one that makes you unprofitable).

Good trading

volente_00 · Apr 20, 2009

S&P will see 656 in the next 90 days.

ElCubano · Apr 21, 2009

Quote from MandelbrotSet:

You aren't betting on a direction.

You are betting on your edge.

It is your edge that makes you profitable (or lack of one that makes you unprofitable).

Good trading

When your edge gives you a signal to enter the market does it tell you to short , go long or both??? then it is tellling you to take action on a direction...you can call it what you want. In the end you are betting the market goes up, down or stays flat....peace

Cutten · Apr 22, 2009

Quote from Thunderdog:

When you say "probabilities," I assume numeric specificity. How do you arrive at a probability distribution of future outcomes?

There's no reason they have to be precise - it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. Just look at the facts, and use your judgement & experience.

Thunderdog · Apr 22, 2009

Quote from Cutten:

There's no reason they have to be precise - it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. Just look at the facts, and use your judgement & experience.

Okay, but then we're really talking about tendencies and the "balance of probability," rather that numbers to hang a hat on.