Two Men Enter... One Man Leaves!

Port's charts are great....

FOR US TO POOP ON!!!


:cool:

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Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Good trading is fundamentally about risk.

Taking risk, managing risk, accepting risk so long as the probabilities of a trade are in your favor.

Predicitions are useless to one's long-term success when done in a vacuum which does not incorporate the probabilities of the prediction's success or the risk parameters of the trade.
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I agree but there is no reason why a prediction can't incorporate probabilities, multiple timeframes, pullbacks etc. Ultimately every trading position is a prediction.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Ultimately every trading position is a prediction.
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They assume that because you are betting on a direction that you think you have to be right..

So then taking a trade can also be useless if it doesnt make you a profit...why take the trade?? :D

the biggest money has been made on betting and throwing money at a direction. If and when it pans out...:D
 
You know, after over about 1500 posts I think its getting time to retire this screen name, so I can afford to be wrong here.

Following the principle of maximum pain to the maximum # of people, here's my guess for the next 3 months.

We rally more than expected, probably clearing 9500 dow at least. Catalyst is GM removal & GS inclusion sparking sharp upward spike and short covering rally with a change in sentiment. Fib retracment rally targets above 10K, but that's a bit early and a bit difficult to swallow.

Despite massive inflationary money creation, gold falls below 800 and stays there on average. Dollar rangebound.

Fundamentals ok to poor but market rallies anyway and optimism comes into the market for whatever reason.

No way we follow that 1929 chart pattern just the same way. No way. Can't happen with this degree of manipulation. Max pain to max # of people. Not saying we don't eventually head lower, but history doesn't repeat the exact same way twice. Similar, but not exact.

Anyone who wants to hold me to the task, feel free. Remind me what I said in August.
 
Quote from atticus:

Predictions are meaningless when nothing is on the line. How difficult is adding a price and time component? The ET public is so inured in pussydom that they will do anything to avoid being proven wrong by posting a bad call.
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Well if someone is actually recommending a trade they have made, then there is something on the line. That's where the markets differ to the media or sports punditry. Most predictions I've seen here have a price component, and quite a few have a time component, although the latter while helpful is not necessary and is often impossible to know with any precision. I've also seen quite a few predictions which contain specific conditions for what would prove the prediction wrong.

Also bear in mind that there are different types of predictions. Some are just giving an opinion, but the poster doesn't have enough conviction to actually risk money on it. There's nothing wrong with that - a message board is after all a place to exchange opinions. Other predictions are more specific i.e. trade recommendations - usually if the poster is serious, these have entry conditions and some description of what kind of move is expected, often they have a suggested trade vehicle etc.
 
The "article" you posted is horseshit... there's even a section in the wiki link that contradicts it. Yet another contrarian call, wrongway!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2383163&#post2383163
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2376406&#post2376406
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2383159#post2383159
Quote from Port1385:

The bottom will be in once we see stuff like this...Fall of 2009 or Spring of 2010...;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

Risky-Safe-Deposite-Box.gif
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