Two Graphs Explaining the Coming Market Crash

[Landis82]

Quote from Lucrum:

That's what they said during the dot com bubble too wasn't it.

My point being, history tends to repeat and it's supposedly always "different this time".

Let's face it, this rally has BLOWN AWAY all historical patterns. At this point in the cycle, before a trough in unemployment you usually get a 20% rally AND NOT A 50% rally in equities like we have!

Once again, this goes to show that you CANNOT trade the stock market off of economic "fundamentals".

You can "cut and paste" one bearish article after another on the economy ( or as Lucrum does, one Obama bashing post after another), but the FACT of the matter is that if you have been short for the past 50, 100, 200, 300 or 350 S&P points you have been absolutely CRUSHED and have no more money left to trade with.

It is a liquidity story.
Always has been.
Period.

 

[hausse]

The inflation adjusted earnings chart looks scary. However, stocks aren't quoted in inflation adjusted terms. I'd imagine many stock charts would look similar when adjusted for inflation.

 

[Landis82]

The biggest surprise today is the FACT that the U.S. Dollar is going to the MOON and putting upward pressure on rates, and yet the S&P couldn't care less.

The Bears always thought that a rally in the Dollar would TANK crude and the S&P.

Surprisingly, it's not happening today.

Julie Andrews is literally singing "Christmas Carols" right now.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from Landis82:

The biggest surprise today is the FACT that the U.S. Dollar is going to the MOON and putting upward pressure on rates, and yet the S&P couldn't care less.

The Bears always thought that a rally in the Dollar would TANK crude and the S&P.

Surprisingly, it's not happening today.

Julie Andrews is literally singing "Christmas Carols" right now.

Interestingly enough, the Aussie is the only big one holding up. I wonder how long until IT cracks?

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Landis82:

Let's face it, this rally has BLOWN AWAY all historical patterns.

You could have just said "it's different this time"

Once again, this goes to show that you CANNOT trade the stock market off of economic "fundamentals".

I never have.

You can "cut and paste" one bearish article after another on the economy ( or as Lucrum does, one Obama bashing post after another), but the FACT of the matter is that if you have been short for the past 50, 100, 200, 300 or 350 S&P points you have been absolutely CRUSHED and have no more money left to trade with.

I can only aspire to be as big of an arrogant, presumptuous, know it all as you are.

 

[makloda]

Quote from Landis82:The Bears always thought that a rally in the Dollar would TANK crude and the S&P.

Surprisingly, it's not happening today

The start of a "The US is ahead in the recovery cycle"? Who knows.

Thus far, every bit of positive news out of the US drove the dollar further down. As capital was looking for "growth" outside of the US, in risky assets. The riskier the better.

Not so today.