TWLO

[EddieMarkel]

this is not consultation or advice.
TWLO:
The price reach the first target price, the halfway indicator (blue line) price 279 and stop there.
from now the price can go up or down, because the price is under EMA line (orange) and we have red dots
on the halfway indicator (the red dots indicate bearish trend), the probability to go down is higher then going up.
If the price go below the blue line(halfway indicator), the next target will be the res line (lower target indicator).

 

[longandshort]

what is your theory behind why lines on a chart will explain the price move of the stock?

 

[EddieMarkel]

Hi.
the theory is that the market is dynamic, the people move the market, so the system find the psychological boundaries of the movement.
I develop this system for few years and check it.
its just work (not 100%).
you can try it if you like.

 

[EddieMarkel]

@masterm1ne I think I was not wrong.

 

[vanzandt]

from now the price can go up or down, because the price is under EMA line (orange) and we have red dots
on the halfway indicator (the red dots indicate bearish trend), the probability to go down is higher then going up.

"The price can go up or down from here" huh?
Hmmm.
Well said.

The #1 Social Network for Traders. Since 1997.

 

[vanzandt]

Hi.
the theory is that the market is dynamic, the people move the market, so the system find the psychological boundaries of the movement.
I develop this system for few years and check it.
its just work (not 100%).
you can try it if you like.

All that aside though, unless the economy crashes, Twilio won't come close to that red line even if it takes out $279 with a vengeance.

That red line would put the company at a price to sales ratio (current) at under 15. There is no way on gods green earth you will ever see that on a tech company that has a trailing 5 year revenue growth of 60% per year, with a three year forecast looking ahead north of 50%/year.

Your model may work on some companies, but I don't think its going to work on Twilio.

EDIT as I typed that TWLO just hit my forecast low for the day. $290.25
Lets see what happens.

 

[EddieMarkel]

the lines are dynamic.
The lines can get closer to the price with the time, so the lower target can be higher then it now.

all the line except the EMA line (orange) are target lines.
When the price and the lines met, you should do rearrangement for your thread.
its like new point to get new decision about the direction of the price.
no system give you 100%.

you can download the program and try it.

 

[masterm1ne]

what is your theory behind why lines on a chart will explain the price move of the stock?

Support/resistance areas. Lines will always work!

you can download the program and try it.
View attachment 242720

No need to download a program to see support areas; you can just draw lines for free in most charting software. The red line you have on your program is simply the 218 support level... no need to predict the future, just take low risk trades around that price.

 

[vanzandt]

[
If the price go below the blue line(halfway indicator), the next target will be the res line (lower target

There went $279. Your target now is $218.
It won't go that low.
Worst case, I see $262.50.

You should try using a logarithmic price scale and see where those lines fall.
I guess it would be the same, but it makes a big difference in the appearance of the chart.

I've never figured out which ones better, but I stick with the one I'm used to as I eyeball resistance levels.

 

[EddieMarkel]

this is not consultation or advice.
TWLO:
The price break the first target price, the halfway indicator (blue line) price 279 - 280 with red candle (the target price changed from 279 to 280).
the close price is 278.77, it below the first target line(halfway indicator).
because the price is under EMA line (orange) and we have red dots
on the halfway indicator (the red dots indicate bearish trend), the probability to go down is higher then going back up.
the next target will be the red line (lower target indicator), because the target lines are dynamic (support and resistance line are fixed line) and change with the time and price,
now the target price is 222.45 , I believe that the the target price will go up to 240-245 (depends on the time and the price).
as long the price under the EMA line(orange), the trend is bearish, and
the price and the red line (low target indicator) should meet.
when they meet, rearrangement should be done .