TWLO earnings play with options

TimtheEnchanter

TimtheEnchanter

If Monday I'd sell 1 Nov 13 TWLO 280 put option for around 10.00 the worse case I'd own the stock at that price. Otherwise, most likely it would rally on earrings and I get to keep the $1000. The only monkey in the wrench is the election and market volatility - if it falls way below 280 and that is very possible when Nasdaq tanks. I would have to be sitting on a possibly losing 28k position for a while.
Or I do the same with GLD. But that would not yield a $1000.
 
I don't like to sell naked on individual stocks especially expensive high-flyers that can get crushed with the wrong news.
If you like the 280 level (Nov 20) then I'd do the 280/260 P spread for $5 x 2 = $10 ($1,000) rather than naked 280 for $965.
Provides protection in case of a disaster yet provides the same income except with greater loss from 260 to 280. If a loss at expiration then close the trade and open a similar spread until you recover the loss.
I guess it depends upon how well you know a company.
Just my opinion but I've burned myself enough on individual stocks so I prefer less risky ETFs :-)
 
Twilio is heading south.
$311 after hours yesterday was a gift as a pure short.
They'll blow out the quarter but there will be something in there that CNBC will attempt to use explaining the after-hours selloff, followed by the bounce the next day, followed by further downward pressure on subsequent trading days.

Make no mistake, I love the stock, but this show repeats itself like Andy Griffith on TV-Land.
Weak longs will be shaken out, then it heads north.
This one follows the same pattern ISRG has for the last 20 years.

G/L figuring out the options trade though. I'd sell a vertical call with a big spread, and then some kind of diagonal put play. If I was running a fund that is.

Either way.... nothing against the company, it's here to stay.. We're just gonna see some downward pressure on the high flyers in general. Near term.
Its already started for real... that was a suckers trap. They all dipped and bounced.
Stupid retail. Dumb money.
 
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If this would be other times than this election mess...I would do SOMETHING. I think it will have an upswing on earnings but the tech market as a whole looks a bit unstable.
 
HomelyWizzard said:
If this would be other times than this election mess...I would do SOMETHING, likely the credit spread. I think it will have an upswing on earnings but the tech market as a whole looks a bit unstable.
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Just play whatever you figure out small.
That's the beauty of this game.
Every day brings a new opportunity to "get rich overnight".
Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't.

But yeah, tech is pulling back. Lots of suckers will buy the dip on certain stocks.
Nothing's ever new.
 
Overnight said:
I wish I traded stocks and not futures. I'm always late to a party that starts winding down. :-(
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How would one even get into this game if they didn't start with learning stocks?

That's what's funny.

I guess people google "making money trading" and they jump on all these stupid youtube vids that focus on ES and all its cousins.

If I'm building a house, i wanna know the 'science' behind the footer.

You always say that @Overnight... "you stock traders" or "you option traders"... for years you have.... there's plenty of time in the day to learn new things. How can someone trade anything without understanding the basic building blocks of the whole friggin operation?!

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vanzandt said:
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I guess I am just befuddled by the March phenomenon. Every chart I see that the financial folks put up looks like this...


twillo.JPG


It seems every company stock in the universe rose from that March low. And not just by a little bit! Seems it is too late to get in the game.


Oh, wait, I know of a few companies that didn't make it like that...

Anything oil-related.

xom.JPG


Bastards!
 
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