Quote from masterm1ne:
I'm sorry but I'm really confused by this statement, as it seems an honest one.
If anything, I controlled my losses very well. What is killing me is the degree of winning trades I've had. Every single winner I had in the last few months only showed profit for a day or two, and was stopped out eventually, for either a small loss or small gain. I've tried every type of stop - Volatility based, price bar based, etc. It almost always is hit. Trades often go in the initial direction that I want, but will come back and hit my stop loss eventually.
I had a few large winners that covered my small losers in the first month or so... this is the foundation of trading I'm sure, as most traders winning percent is not much higher than 50%. Obviously I've suffered an anomaly, as I know my big edge is correct near 95% of the time, but because of the timing of my entries, it of course has not demonstrated that. Also, if I were entering at RANDOM, I should have more winners than I have had recently, especially over this period of time!
I have been trying to catch large moves as my big 'edge' called them. However, this is proving to be quite more challenging that it was in my back test(s)...
When I find something that has high probability when I back test it, it almost never turns out the same way in a forward test. As I posted before a simple pattern that reoccurs has like 80% probability of at least offering a scalpers profit as long as the entry and exit rules are followed. Of course I do a few trades on it they are all losers!!!
Regardless, I need to go back to paper trading. I think the problem is probability/edge, and the fact my account is small doesn't help...
