Twenty-twelve [P&L]

Quote from masterm1ne:

It has become clear to be good at this requires a consant process of revision, like many things.

I should take back my statements of attempting to trade pure price action. My current experience as well as study of charts show that without something other than price action, it's very difficult to find high probability trades. I have traded many technical patterns alone. Obviously, it hasn't been a stellar approach. There are possibly pure price patterns out there that can make money, but to me, there are indicators that very logically explain when and where the price should go.

So.... I revised my entry plan to include at least 1 indicator other than price, which there are several. Basically, I'm still looking for a trendline break in the direction an indicator points to.

I think the most important part of trading is the exit strategy. In the past I haven't put too much emphasis on this - except by using tight stops. This is only part of the equation. I need to figure out how to take profits as well. All my tests show in most cases you lose or make a little, and few cases you make a lot, with my current exit plan.

I still don't believe I should invest time in creating a program to test ideas. The things I observe in the market do not have an obvious fixed pattern. Therefore, as I've explained before, I don't think profitable algos are created easily and on top of that I don't think they persist well. Not only that, but because I think avoiding intra-day is more worth while (especially when it comes time to pay the piper), I only need to check the market a few times a week, which I can easily do without automation. I'll update my edge direction weekly, and check price after the close.

@ $24k (+0%)

Masterm1ne, entries <b>and</b> exits are as essential for success in trading as the strategy you should be basing your decisions on.

Thinking that risk management will save you from death by ten thousand paper cuts is not the right way to approach trading. You can't expect poor entry points to work themselves out simply because you developed a marginally profitable risk management strategy. Risk management has more to do with size and leverage, than it does in determining stops. Stops are part of the strategy, not your risk management discipline. The use of robust indicators is not necessary if you can creatively devise non-extremum indicators that have no absolute high or low points. If you can do that your strategies will automatically become more robust because they will consider the entries in light of the exits and not treat any entry as a reason to apply risk management techniques.
 
Open trades:

Corn, NG, JPY, Cotton, Coffee and Lumber (all long).

No margin left for holding trades longer than 1 day.

Risk is 2-8% per trade (too much).

@ $22k (-8%)
 
Quote from masterm1ne:

Open trades:

Corn, NG, JPY, Cotton, Coffee and Lumber (all long).

No margin left for holding trades longer than 1 day.

Risk is 2-8% per trade (too much).

@ $22k (-8%)

ooops
 
Quote from masterm1ne:

At least I won't have to pay taxes for a long time.

Still long Cotton and Coffee.

@ $18k (-25%)

It doesn't have to be this way. Whatever your rationale for Cotton and Coffee you have no edge, so holding it is no different than buy and hold hoping.
 
Quote from masterm1ne:

Short crude,
@ $21k (-12.5%)

it's not your fault, nobody could predict a pipeline fire in Saudi Arabia that drove up oil price.

don't listen to bowlinsky, the fire is an accident, not in the chart.

If bowlinsky claims he can see the fire in his trading chart, he is doing Jamaican voodoo.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

It doesn't have to be this way. Whatever your rationale for Cotton and Coffee you have no edge, so holding it is no different than buy and hold hoping.

I think I may have stumbled onto the part of ET where traders come to die. And this guy is a freakin zombie!

And I thought my $100 loss on SODA was not so good...

Masterm1ne, dude, you're flipping coins.

good luck, cuz soon, you'll end up losing even the thumb you're the flipping the coins with...
 
Quote from beachhouse:

it's not your fault, nobody could predict a pipeline fire in Saudi Arabia that drove up oil price.

don't listen to bowlinsky, the fire is an accident, not in the chart.

If bowlinsky claims he can see the fire in his trading chart, he is doing Jamaican voodoo.

Our statistical arbitrage model went long QM today.

Buy Entry 11:45 107.50, STC 108.675.

If your model works well, it will catch moves like this in the open market without having to read the news.
 

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