TurtleTrader

But I do hear from time to time that trend-following cannot work now. That it was a temporary successful formula that could only work in the 80's or 90's or whenever. That there are now so many people doing it that it has been arbitraged out of the markets.

Okay, can you explain? How can a trend be arbitraged out? A trend is a price movement in one direction (with noise, of course). If it's moving up or down consistently throughout a period of time (perhaps above a certain % threshold of movement), which obviously happens all the time, how can anyone claim that it's arbitraged out? I mean, it happened right? If you BLSH, then profit.
 
Okay, can you explain? How can a trend be arbitraged out? A trend is a price movement in one direction (with noise, of course). If it's moving up or down consistently throughout a period of time (perhaps above a certain % threshold of movement), which obviously happens all the time, how can anyone claim that it's arbitraged out? I mean, it happened right? If you BLSH, then profit.


I can't explain it, I don't believe it. I am a trend-follower.
 
Okay, can you explain? How can a trend be arbitraged out? A trend is a price movement in one direction (with noise, of course). If it's moving up or down consistently throughout a period of time (perhaps above a certain % threshold of movement), which obviously happens all the time, how can anyone claim that it's arbitraged out? I mean, it happened right? If you BLSH, then profit.
Trend is formed by supply and demand. If an indicator for trend is well know I can front run the indicator buying and selling and your indicator would be late to the game. Remember the January effect?

Am I making any sense? I am not a pro, just an amateur retail.
 
I can't explain it, I don't believe it. I am a trend-follower.
%%
I can explain it; trends do NOT really get arbed out. BUT if you have all or most all jumping on a 50 day moving average@ same time-it can get crowded, slop chop/pig slop. BUT give a good trend some time, especially if they pay you dividends to wait.:cool::cool:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
 
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