Turnaround Tuesdays on Steroids: 29% annual returns since 1999, with only two negative years

[quantitativo]

Hey guys,
Just tested a strategy that has achieved an impressive 29% annual returns since 1999, with only two negative years: the Turnaround Tuesdays.

The Turnaround Tuesdays is a simple trading strategy based on the observation that stocks tend to rebound on Tuesdays after a down Monday.

Equity and drawdown curves for the improved strategy, applied to TQQQ (3x QQQ)

Summary of the backtest statistics

Summary of the backtest trades

Monthly and annual returns since 1999

The original entry rules couldn't be more simple:

• Today is Tuesday;
• Yesterday's close (Monday) was lower than Friday's;
• Friday's close was lower than Thursday's;
• Go long at the opening.

The exit is also simple:

• Exit the trade when the close is higher than yesterday's high.
  

The results shown above are from an improved strategy: it uses leverage and considers entries not only on Tuesdays but also on Wednesdays.

I created a full write-up with all the details here.

I'd love to hear what you guys think. Cheers!

 

[poopy]

You're backtesting cash index/QQQ? NDX? The results are BS as cash trails the gap in futures. The cash index isn't leveraged.

 

[quantitativo]

You're backtesting cash index/QQQ? NDX? The results are BS as cash trails the gap in futures. The cash index isn't leveraged.

TQQQ, the ETF that tracks QQQ 3x leveraged

 

[Sprout]

You're backtesting cash index/QQQ? NDX? The results are BS as cash trails the gap in futures. The cash index isn't leveraged.

Maybe not, although Gap Fills ES/SPX do have statistical significance.

 

[S2007S]

Why even worry about a down Monday..... why even put any thoughts into a down any day of week ....markets are surging to new highs everyday. No need to worry about a small 0.17% pull back on a Monday

 

[poopy]

TQQQ, the ETF that tracks QQQ 3x leveraged

I see the blurb about TQQQ.

Right, which are not perfect trackers and didn't trade AH for the majority of those years.

TQQQ was around in 1999?

 

[quantitativo]

I see the blurb about TQQQ.

Right, which are not perfect trackers and didn't trade AH for the majority of those years.

TQQQ was around in 1999?

No, TQQQ's inception was on 2011-02-09. Backtesting from 2011 to today resulted in a 2.03 Sharpe with 28.7% annualized returns in comparison to 17.9% QQQ in the same period, despite being exposed only 16% of the time. 74.6% win rate, but only 209 trades in the backtest (14/year).

To increase the number of trades, I synthetically generated the TQQQ from 2011-02-09 back to 1999-03-10 (QQQ's inception). It's not hard to generate synthetic TQQQ prices for dates before 2011-02-09, as we know that the ETF tracks 3x the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index on a daily basis. Few lines of code (you can check it here).

 

[danielc1]

If you draw a time unit worth of trading, you have an opening, low, high, close. If you draw a daily chart each bar will have an opening, low, high and close. If you draw a weekly chart, each bar will have an opening, low, high and close.
If you are seeing more up weeks then down weeks, you will have more chance of a turn around in Tuesday or Wednesday, and a retrace on a Friday afternoon. On a daily it is in hours, where the first 90 minutes will have the low of the day, in an up day and a retrace in the last 30 minutes somewhere. It just follows the drawing of the open, low, high, close. In down day's, it is open,high,low,close. If you would ad that the previous week must have been positive, I think you would even have a bigger return.

 

[schizo]

Hey guys,
Just tested a strategy that has achieved an impressive 29% annual returns since 1999, with only two negative years: the Turnaround Tuesdays.

Hello Quanto, I knew you'd be back.

Anyway, if it's that good, why publish it? I would keep it under tight seal and trade it myself.

 

[quantitativo]

Hello Quanto, I knew you'd be back.

Anyway, if it's that good, why publish it? I would keep it under tight seal and trade it myself.

I'm sharing so we can talk about it and potentially improve it. Also, if there are people looking for ideas to try out, they might find these interesting.

Some people share nothing about their methods, while others share almost all aspects of their strategies. I admire people in the 2nd group. For example, the other day, I listened to an interview with Marsten Parker (there's a chapter about him in a Market Wizards book), in which he shared everything with all the details the interviewer asked.

(And I'm trading a variation of it... the basic idea is the same, but there are some adjustments on top of it )