For foreign investors that only matters if the currency depreciates... which it does I guess.
It didn’t in Brazil in the mid 2000s
For foreign investors that only matters if the currency depreciates... which it does I guess.
It didn’t in Brazil in the mid 2000s
What.. currency depreciation?
In 2007 Brazil was running pretty high inflation and the forwards for options reflected it. However the currency appreciated a lot.
Yeah I'm just looking at it now... so from mid 2002 until mid 2008 the Real roughly doubled vs USD. Can't find a decent inflation chart for that period yet. But their interest rate went from just under 20% to about 12%.
So... did the appreciation of the Real cause the drop in interest rates, because their Central Bank wanted to keep a lid on it?
I don’t remember on the interest rate side. I do remember getting crazy levels on Brazil etf risk reversals and earning big on them because of the foreign currency.
Long the calls I assume? That's what inflation typically does... domestic stock market shoots. Kinda surprised that inflation went up... currency as well and rates down. That's like a triple whammy to the upside.
What was the cause for that all to happen, do you remember? Bovespa went x6?
Shorting the Lira is a smart move. Kills you on the carry, but long term this currency can't go anywhere but down.