Tuesday Morning.......Whats next...

Markets are dislocated by surprises. You simply cannot surprise the market with the same information twice
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That is simply untrue. The markets are governed by mass pyschology. You sound like you are a supporter of the "efficient market" theory that my liberal economics professors taught in college.

The markets price things in, but somethings those things take awhile to "snowball."

The Chicago manufacturing number was well below the 53 they expected. I believe it was around 48 or so. That means manufacturing is contracting. The feds are now under additional pressure to reduce interest rates, but the real problem in my opinion is liquidity in the money supply -- which needs to be increased. That will at least delay the inevitable in my opinion.

Keep in mind that the market really exists because of each investor who puts a position in the market. Although there are thousands of money managers that control millions and/or billions of dollars, if enough small guys open up their monthy statements and figure it is time to bail, the cumulative effect is that the money managers will need to sell some of their positions off -- but who's buying lately? No one.
 
Dr. Z..Nice commentary btw!!


When does it start or where does it end?

We have been in a steady bearish market for some time. With the "thoughts of investors and the media of "this is the bottom" for some time doesn't help any.

When the nasdaq was piping hot through 5000k, were investors worried or concerned "this is the top"? Not a peep was said.

The consumer, has been tormented beating and thrown in the trash. Euphoria from every so called "rally" we have had is amazing but ever so "Short" lived.

Corporations have lost consumer confidence as scandals and lies have been projected through greed. We see and have learned, it takes 1 man to endanger the existence of a company. WCOM? ENE? Even way back to ETYS , a pioneer within itself.

Recently DoveBid, soon to be an IPO, performed an auction of all of Enrons's assets and companies assets, it was sad to see them apologize before the auction started.
(The "E" sold for 44k fwiw)

LU, Americas widest held stock at one point is leaving us soon, why should the "average consumer buy?

On the brighter side of things, inertia will fill the market place after the world gets back on its axis. When the governments stop toying and ego's start to shrink.

There will be a True market place soon enough, where there is life, there is death, and vs/vser. It is a matter of time thats all. We are coming in for a landing , it will just take some time.

Does anyone look at fundamentals anymore? Play the game Wall Street is playing, its a great time to be a trader all through this great "rally slide". Well have just as much fun on the way up!!

You see, Short sellers are not really a despised group, they just are the "Oracles" to a downside market. Their time will end where the Bulls get their feet dirty again.

Remember, its a 3 sided coin, up, down, and flat. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bulls to open the gate must sure be tiresome. Look at the Dynamics of Supply and Demand.

Well this is no spectator sport to say the least, trade whatever direction the wind blows your sail..........

Take the Red Pill!!!
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil


The markets price things in, but somethings those things take awhile to "snowball."
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Exactly, a snowball rolls and build's upon itself gradually. It doesn't surprise.

The Chicago manufacturing number was well below the 53 they expected. I believe it was around 48 or so. That means manufacturing is contracting. The feds are now under additional pressure to reduce interest rates, but the real problem in my opinion is liquidity in the money supply -- which needs to be increased. That will at least delay the inevitable in my opinion.
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Okay...but why should anyone freak over this. This a natural progression, it is obvious... you see it coming. This is hardly a reason for a dislocation.

.... if enough small guys open up their monthy statements and figure it is time to bail, the cumulative effect is that the money managers will need to sell some of their positions off...
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What year do you think this is? This is not April of 2000. The little guy and has already opened his statements and has fully assimilated this bear by now.

Don't count on Joey Six to flip out at this point.


This is not a slam on you. I'm sincerely interest in your thought process.


Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
 
I had friends of mine that had no interest in the market whatsoever . Then in a matter of a couple of quarters, I was having conversations involving the stock market and listening to opinions of what stock they liked and why. They had become overnight analysts. None of them are still in the market. The last die hard called me last night and told me that He was never going to buy another stock in his life. He is going to put his money back into bonds where it belongs...

... Here we go!!!:D :D :D
 
Tradesman


It really is incredible just how many people lost it all. I am talking people near retirement near that smooth sailing part of life.

Ouch! , and this goverment is a Variable. We have a great country , but dammm no reason to piss so many off like that.
 
I sense a lot of bearish sentiment on this thread but in my opinion, its well warranted. We are in the 3rd phase of the bear trend, the most devastating, and as bad as its been, for most people, it needs to get a lot worse. Close your kids eyes, its going to get ugly. People say there is a dissconnect between the markets and the economy...I don't think so. The market always knows.
 
I saw your post last night about CTSH, I followed this morning. Wow. That was a great call. Ebay and Qlgc too. Great stuff. Do you have a web page or something with a record of these?
 
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