TST Combine Journey
- Thread starter Rodrigcn
- Start date
Trades today 5/18/2017:
Have to but short today but did way too many trades (have to travel in a bit and personal reasons)
1) Mistake - i was trying to figure out a technical issue on my computer and accidentally booked a loss
2) Shorted below the bear bar at low, was shorting low in a TR so took profits quickly
3) Bought but didn't like the context, seemed about to break out to the downside- got out
4) Initiated a short and scaled in higher - very dumb trade - i took a big loss here but if i held i could have made a profit
5) Bought dip and held for a bit
6) Bought another dip and held
7) shorted DT- should have held longer
8) Bought dip, felt market was going to Break to the upside
9) made 3.5 pips on a quick buy on BO but go out when market started to hesitate
Have to but short today but did way too many trades (have to travel in a bit and personal reasons)
1) Mistake - i was trying to figure out a technical issue on my computer and accidentally booked a loss
2) Shorted below the bear bar at low, was shorting low in a TR so took profits quickly
3) Bought but didn't like the context, seemed about to break out to the downside- got out
4) Initiated a short and scaled in higher - very dumb trade - i took a big loss here but if i held i could have made a profit
5) Bought dip and held for a bit
6) Bought another dip and held
7) shorted DT- should have held longer
8) Bought dip, felt market was going to Break to the upside
9) made 3.5 pips on a quick buy on BO but go out when market started to hesitate
Excellent work, stay true to the rules..
Trades today 5/19/2017:
10 Bought long but got out when market stated to turn back
2) Bought again, felt market was going back up
3) Bought again where i locked in some profits
4) Bought high again and sat for a while, was nervous of a pullback but once i got a little bit more points enough to cover my target profit i locked out
10 Bought long but got out when market stated to turn back
2) Bought again, felt market was going back up
3) Bought again where i locked in some profits
4) Bought high again and sat for a while, was nervous of a pullback but once i got a little bit more points enough to cover my target profit i locked out
Look at the avg win/loss ratio. Winning 70% of the time approaches 1:1 reward to risk ratio. If that pct went to 80%, his avg loss would double his avg win. If that winning pct dropped to 50%, then the RR would land between 1.8:1 to 2.0:1.
The market ALWAYS bounds this indirect mathematical relationship in the long-term. Understand this and you'll understand what is reasonable to do and not do in a trading system which must return you a positive expectancy.
If some of you older-timers can recall, Donna (aka NoDoji) followed the trading adventures of a journal where the guy made a bet with his friend that he could double his stock account within a year, placing fixed 2:1 reward to risk ratio bets, never moving his target or stop and never setting a breakeven. Even if he were a penny to hitting his target, he was still willing to take the full loss. He won about 50% of the time. He won the bet with his friend.
The guy had a trading signal, which, when triggered, basically setup the classic "I'll give you $1 if I lose a coin flip but you will give me $2 if I win." Anyone here would be happy to take that bet all day / any day because they know a fair coin has a 50/50 chance of going your way, regardless of the consecutive wins and losses you experience along the way. He simply uncovered a method which would approximate this in the market when his conditions were met (bet it was 1 or 2...more conditions doesn't guarantee better results)
OP, this is the deal:
You either have a winning trading system or you don't and, if you do, it is limited by what it can offer you per unit by the layman's description above. All of your emotional reactions to the individual trades won't make a hill of beans in the end. Once you accept the math of what is possible and what is not, trading becomes pretty mundane.
The market ALWAYS bounds this indirect mathematical relationship in the long-term. Understand this and you'll understand what is reasonable to do and not do in a trading system which must return you a positive expectancy.
If some of you older-timers can recall, Donna (aka NoDoji) followed the trading adventures of a journal where the guy made a bet with his friend that he could double his stock account within a year, placing fixed 2:1 reward to risk ratio bets, never moving his target or stop and never setting a breakeven. Even if he were a penny to hitting his target, he was still willing to take the full loss. He won about 50% of the time. He won the bet with his friend.
The guy had a trading signal, which, when triggered, basically setup the classic "I'll give you $1 if I lose a coin flip but you will give me $2 if I win." Anyone here would be happy to take that bet all day / any day because they know a fair coin has a 50/50 chance of going your way, regardless of the consecutive wins and losses you experience along the way. He simply uncovered a method which would approximate this in the market when his conditions were met (bet it was 1 or 2...more conditions doesn't guarantee better results)
OP, this is the deal:
You either have a winning trading system or you don't and, if you do, it is limited by what it can offer you per unit by the layman's description above. All of your emotional reactions to the individual trades won't make a hill of beans in the end. Once you accept the math of what is possible and what is not, trading becomes pretty mundane.