Jeez, this rally is insane!
$TSLA
- Thread starter Phill Twist
- Start date
The future with tech is going to be so easy ... all you have to do is think about things and they happen. Okay, think TSLA @ $1,000!
Some buzz around autonomous driving and/or solar roofs. Nothing that pops up on google news. You seem to be a realist Pekelo, what's your take on being long on TSLA? I've gone in and out of it a few times but can't wrap my head around the hype.
I'll say this, I work in the industry and it's impossible to make any sort of innovation and the co-workers are generally not that smart. I've seen a lot of talent move to tesla so they do have that going for them (attract new people w/new ideas). In a world where software is driving the advantages of one OEM over another, they seem to be heavily invested in that realm and are in a prime location for it.
A few weeks ago I posted that it is not going to go down until the M3 comes out. But this relentless going up specially without news, surprised me. I think the M3 will be delayed by at least a month if not 3, but again, that hype will keep the stock price up.
Once the M3 comes out I expect 2 things:
1. People will realize that its price is nowhere near 35K. Sure they might have a very base car for just keeping the promise, but nobody will buy that and once a buyer gets the gizmos, it will be 45-50K. That might put a dumper on the enthusiasm.
2. I expect major technical problems with the car due to not enough testing. But the problems will need time to come out, so it might take another 2-4 months before people start to complain.
Also people further down in the ordering line will realize that their 7K subsidy will evaporate by the time they get the car, in 2019, so that should cut down on orders.
So putting it into prices, I expect sideways or up until the M3 comes out and possibly selling it off after the first few thousands of M3s are already on the road...Now if the M3 proves to be a major hit, then all bets are off...
Instead of buying or short selling the stock, I would use vertical options. The advantage is that you get a better ROI, and time works for you if the price doesn't move much. So right now I would be selling vertical put spreads, although I have just posted a vertical call previously.
In hindsight, it could've been his threat of abandoning the presidential "business council" if Trump pulled out of the Paris accord. Tesla stands to gain significantly from such measures...but seems like he may have overplayed his hand:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/trump-paris-climate-decision/index.html
let's see how this goes.
I am wondering what Musk is going to say on the recent news.