298.52 what a run today! We still have too many catalysts: M Y, Solar , ER, M3 release, AP2.0 full activation, Chines mass market, adding today $200k+ in profit on this pop! Firming up my long position as I believe this will be the next big thing ..ride with me!
$TSLA
- Thread starter Phill Twist
- Start date
Prime example of wallstreet thinking of the future instead of the past.. This will be interesting tmrw.
There is a suspicion that Tencent Holdings, the Chinese company has been buying the shares for a while now and they might be the new distributor of Teslas in China too.The language used was changed from end-customer to customer, so the new 5.5% owner of Tesla might also owns a few thousands unsold cars sitting in China somewhere... Helps with beating the numbers. Kind of a sleazy deal if true.
Wow, bears must be stunned right now.
I like a good conspiracy when I see one, here is what I was talking about earlier, from SeekingAlpha:
"
bkrolik
Comments (90) |+ Follow |Send Message
Here are some musings from a scared bear on the sidelines.
Let’s imagine a EV company makes a certain business “arrangement” with a Chinese entity. Said Chinese entity invests 5% in EV Comp shares, which at $270 per share would be around $2b (there may be additional investments through converts and/or derivatives, but less consider this min). Then the Chinese create a “marketing” campaign for the EV Comp vehicles in China – all the buzz, press, and demonstration of the strong pent-up demand. The set up a number of “dealerships”, stuff them with inventory and may even imitate some real sales, by essentially giving up the cars significantly below MSRP by means of rebates and discounts, some hidden in leases/financing.
To beat deliveries estimates, the EV Comp would need to show quarterly numbers in excess of 25,000 (existing models only). Let’s say for the next three quarters the beats coming from China would be +4000, +7,000, +9,000; total +20,000 for the year. Mind blowing. Let’s assume third of it is dealer inventory stuffing, and the rest are end customers sales. Let’s also assume the hidden sales discounts are about 20% of MSRP, and the dealers inventory is subsequently sold at 30% loss. These are very, very extreme assumptions, but I just want to estimate the maximum possible loss here. Now, with average MSRP of $75,000, this would cost the Chinese entity (assuming it is their part of the arrangement) up to $250m.
As another part of the “marketing” campaign, the Chinese promote the future model of EV Comp, and collect 100,000 down payments for the future delivery. To make this attractive, they make them fully redeemable and pay an interest of let’s say 15% per year. This would cost the Chinese another $15m.
The key question now is how EV Comp stock would react on such unbelievably strong demand in the best market in the world? The mere facts of the Chinese 5% investment coupled with some anemic numbers from China moved the stock up by 10%. This is $200m return for the Chinese already. What if this “demand” story runs through the year, with exciting announcements coming from China every week – new dealerships opening, lines of people to test and buy, comments from industry and government people, etc. Can the stock run up by another 20%? 30%? 50%?? Supported by another bunch of good news, like new model production? Let’s assume another modest 25% up from current levels by the end of the year. That gives the Chinese another $600m.
So, we have a total gain on investment of about $800m, with potential “marketing” expense of around $250 - $300m. $500m net on $2b invested in less than a year; potentially much more.
Can the Chinese do this? I guess they can. Is it a realistic assumption of what’s going on between EV Comp and the Chinese? I have no clue what’s happening here. All I want to say is that both bulls and bears should follow the Chinese story very closely. Also, my guess is the stock can still run even if the Chinese demand will look somewhat fishy…"
"
bkrolik
Comments (90) |+ Follow |Send Message
Here are some musings from a scared bear on the sidelines.
Let’s imagine a EV company makes a certain business “arrangement” with a Chinese entity. Said Chinese entity invests 5% in EV Comp shares, which at $270 per share would be around $2b (there may be additional investments through converts and/or derivatives, but less consider this min). Then the Chinese create a “marketing” campaign for the EV Comp vehicles in China – all the buzz, press, and demonstration of the strong pent-up demand. The set up a number of “dealerships”, stuff them with inventory and may even imitate some real sales, by essentially giving up the cars significantly below MSRP by means of rebates and discounts, some hidden in leases/financing.
To beat deliveries estimates, the EV Comp would need to show quarterly numbers in excess of 25,000 (existing models only). Let’s say for the next three quarters the beats coming from China would be +4000, +7,000, +9,000; total +20,000 for the year. Mind blowing. Let’s assume third of it is dealer inventory stuffing, and the rest are end customers sales. Let’s also assume the hidden sales discounts are about 20% of MSRP, and the dealers inventory is subsequently sold at 30% loss. These are very, very extreme assumptions, but I just want to estimate the maximum possible loss here. Now, with average MSRP of $75,000, this would cost the Chinese entity (assuming it is their part of the arrangement) up to $250m.
As another part of the “marketing” campaign, the Chinese promote the future model of EV Comp, and collect 100,000 down payments for the future delivery. To make this attractive, they make them fully redeemable and pay an interest of let’s say 15% per year. This would cost the Chinese another $15m.
The key question now is how EV Comp stock would react on such unbelievably strong demand in the best market in the world? The mere facts of the Chinese 5% investment coupled with some anemic numbers from China moved the stock up by 10%. This is $200m return for the Chinese already. What if this “demand” story runs through the year, with exciting announcements coming from China every week – new dealerships opening, lines of people to test and buy, comments from industry and government people, etc. Can the stock run up by another 20%? 30%? 50%?? Supported by another bunch of good news, like new model production? Let’s assume another modest 25% up from current levels by the end of the year. That gives the Chinese another $600m.
So, we have a total gain on investment of about $800m, with potential “marketing” expense of around $250 - $300m. $500m net on $2b invested in less than a year; potentially much more.
Can the Chinese do this? I guess they can. Is it a realistic assumption of what’s going on between EV Comp and the Chinese? I have no clue what’s happening here. All I want to say is that both bulls and bears should follow the Chinese story very closely. Also, my guess is the stock can still run even if the Chinese demand will look somewhat fishy…"
These hit $8.65 today.
Unfortunately I didn't close out.
Risk? Yes. But if TSLA succeeds, the stock will be above 1000 in 2 years, who wants to miss opportunities like that?
