Tsla

Wow.

WPC in $35.60 Now $38.60. Gain $3.... and 6.7% div!

RPM in $18.74 Now $19.60. Gain $1... and 4.8% div!

RIG Now $54 watching

TSLA Now $25.60 Watching.

LIWA.... kids I know it's Chinese but this name show's subtle strength since bottoming. Watching. A copper and copper substitute play.

FMCN.... What another Chinese one!Yes. Why? Because I sold this scared before all this mess at $26!!!! as I remember maybe $28 and it's NOW $ 29.85. That's all you need to know. Buying FMCN tomorrow.

UA- I'm considering throwing this name into the Elite Trader Portfolio: it's $62

CRI is still a huge position for us-- check out that price. $31.48. What a rock.

HOTT is a good buy here, same stores are good and you get 4% yield. $6.76

SNCR Back on the watch list! Great volume in this name today--No Medium term position taken yet.

Sold out 3 high anxiety dogs from my portfolio, stks that missed their earnings:
SQNS,GTXI & NVMI.

How about ZAGG? We don't own it anymore and we sold it for you at a peak -$14 from $9 but LOOK where it is now... WHAT! How is a stock where we sold it before this mess? Talk about Relative Strength! (Apple Ap Play)

New Buy & Elite Trader Portfolio Member now for the THIRD time Mr Consistent- IPGP. In at $59.25... Now $61.75 Continue to buy this name folks! I told my guys to watch the market next week and if we stay strong to buy POT (both kinds).

Lets remember to watch RPXC- I really like their business model. I think that about covers everything. Thanks for letting me tidy up things Nurse B.

Other stocks still being held unfortunately from earlier thread:
UNIS & VICL
CIGX & ICON
IMMR & GSM
CNTF & ARBA
MYGN & KEYN

THAT'S IT FOLKS. You now know what I do and that's quite a lot. You made money this week! I'm off to give my body what it craves: two weeks of barely moving. Just barely moving. If you ever saw the movie Sexy Beast-- there's a scene in there when the mobster sits up slowly at the pool... Well I'm off for some of that... booze lots of booze. Now is when I change from friendly rum to high stung gin and tequila....My innards like tree rings are waiting for the juice... Hey if someone whips out the disco dust what am I going to do? I'm only human. A small human in the big world and that fact is always made relevant when I stare at an endless horizon.. when I stare at the ocean. There is something about not being able to see the end of things, of staring a that wild unexplored expanse; something that is so beautiful and right. Besides a grown man can nap at the beach and not get laughed at.

See ya in 2 weeks. ~stoney
 
Found this Nurse B on TSLA-

TSLA- Revenues for the quarter ending March 31, 2011 were $49 million, with R&D costs of $41 million, Sales and Admin costs of $24 million and a loss from operations of $47.3 million. Capital expenditures alone for 2011 are expected to be in the range of $190 to $215 million.

Vehicle sales in the quarter were $20.4 million in the 1st quarter, up 13% from the same quarter in 2010.

The company anticipates that the cash will fund operation through the anticipated initial deliveries of the Model S.

Valuing the Investment


Let’s assume (optimistically) that they start shipping Model S in mid 2012. Year 1 revenue growth without the Model S would be minimal. For Year 2 we assume they can build and sell 5,000 Model S’ for $60,000 each (revenue $300 million). Let’s assume they build and sell enough cars to grow revenue by 50% every year for another ten years. Let’s assume they can finance all that growth cost effectively. Let’s assume that after a couple of years of losses, they can quickly grow earnings to the 8% net profit after tax range (very good for a car company).
For the above scenario, our model calculates that the discounted value of those earnings would be approximately $1 billion. For early stage tech companies we don’t put a value on what happens after 12 years. Maybe that is where we will differ from you. Our standard assumption for early tech companies is that the uncertainty of revenue and earnings streams are so high after 12 years that we don’t put any value on it. (If we were valuing toll highways or hydro electric stations, we would use a very different model.)

A billion dollars in earnings pretty much assumes that none of the many risks listed by the company become a problem. Less optimistically, if Tesla is late by one year in getting to volume shipments of the Model S, or if one of two of those risk items identified in Tesla SEC filings were to happen, then most of the $1 billion disappears. Such is the unforgiving financial reality of paying out for development costs in present dollars, but collecting the benefits in heavily discounted dollars.

We value all early stage tech businesses this way, and we don’t see a reason to make an exception for Tesla, no matter how good the karma. In round numbers, a billion dollars, if shared by some 130,000,000 diluted shares, is worth about $8 a share. Granted, it’s a quick and dirty test, but we’ll be passing up on this investment.>>>>>>>

You can see their numbers add up almost exactly to mine-- the difference is I allow much more upside for being such a new idea-- luxury & speed w a battery under the hood. They say $8, the analysts say $38, the answer is probably half way between or so - $29.50 is my target.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

I'm waiting on the retail numbers if they are good I'm sending in UA.

Another stock I'm kicking around now is VOD.

I'm looking for stocks that (1) beat their number (2) raised future guidance just before the collapse-- that would include both UA & VOD as well as SNCR & EXPE.

These are my 4 ideas this morning-- the only problem being I have to leave at 10:00 am sharp. ~stoney

UA-

VOD-

SNCR-

EXPE-
 
Bump

Anyone else following TSLA for a trade? Wow, what a move they have had of late, what was that a new target upgrade to $49?

Gull wing doors on Model X? WTF
 
Question is: how many cars will they sell over the next 3,5 and 10 years. If they succeed 4B$ is actually not that much, because they would rule the market. There is no serious competition at the moment. BYD and all the efforts of the old producers are a joke. What happens if oil goes to 200$? I think they will grow at enormous rates over the next years. They want to become profitable in 2 years I believe. However, the valuation prices in a lot of growth already, so the upside is limited in the short term. On the other hand AFAIK they already have sold out and ramping up production in 2013 is pretty much a given. For traders there might be short-term opportunities, because the release of the Model S could lead to major moves in either direction.
 
Earnings are after hours. All the scared money is out. Place your bets.

No reason for outlandish move up yet, but could easily move several dollars.

30.36 as I type. I see 34 after hours (in one hour) and easily that much in 2.5 hours when part time CEO gets excited about the coming months.
 
I rather see a downmove for today. Negative earnings are always a good reason to sell. The shorts will not believe until we see the sales and eventual profits rolling in. This is very easy money over 1-2 years IMO. Valuation is not aggressive at all. 30x 2013 earnings, with massive growth rates ahead. They could easily go from 5,000 to 20,000 in 2013 to 40,000 in 2014. 2013 and good chunks of 2014 will be sold out pretty quickly. i really hope they will be a delay and I can buy at 20$ or something. Musk is a genius, and betting on him will pay off. I actually think he is going to be the reachest guy on the planet one day.
 
pure electric vehicles are a fail, and will continue to be for many years.

EVs are selling poorly. cars like the Volt and Leaf saw sales declines after the initial buzz wore off.

Look at the performance and fuel economy of hybrids or even pure-gasoline cars like the Sonata . they combine excellent fuel economy with ICE-like performance and range, yet cost much less. There's no compelling argument to get an EV unless you're just trying to make a statement.
 
And no need to buy an Apple when windows/MSFT give you so much more efficiency for you dollar?

I understand the arguement. There is not yet a good response to it. But I have sat in a Tesla S and want to drive and own one.
 
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