TSLA the next leg up

[nillionaire]

They may try to keep TSLA above $161.88 for the next month. Found this on another forum -


Is it too early to consider large institutions positioning themselves to keep Tesla above 160 for 20 (or 30) days to trigger the convertible covenants. I know it doesn't come into play until October, but there is 1.5% interest on bonds or convertible notes as shares with a price of $124 and trading above $160. When does that come into play?

The conversion must take place during a quarter that begins after 2013 SEP 30. For conversion the share price must close above $161.88 for at least 20 of the 30 consecutive trading days that end the previous quarter. The share equivalent price of the notes was $124.52, so conversion would be advantageous. The first 30 trading day period that qualifies actually began on Monday this week, AUG 19. So if the closing share price is above $161.88 for at least 20 of the trading days between now and SEP 30, the notes can be converted at any later date this year.

 

[d08]

Quote from Specterx:

It is? Starting in 2004, AAPL increased by nearly 20x going into the '08 crisis, and 70x overall into the recent $700 peak. So while stocks do go up and down and TSLA will have a major pullback/consolidation at some point, perhaps for several years, none of that means there isn't a shitload of money to be made.

No position in TSLA btw.

The key is the slope. If Tesla grew like this within a 3-4 year period, I'd see nothing wrong with it but TSLA has done it in 5 months. Couldn't find AAPL ever doing it in this short of a period.

 

[JesseJamesFinn]

TSLA made it to $173+ faster than I thought it would, fell to $134 and climbed up to $173 (Not $175). It trades like TASR use to trade in their growth and speculative cycle.


Do I get brownie points on this idea, the traders on this board are far beyond my skill level, TSLA's a fun stock to play. What prevents us from heading to $200 if China, Oil and other problems make TSLA more than a Cult Stock?

 

[Builder17]

Quote from Specterx:

It is? Starting in 2004, AAPL increased by nearly 20x going into the '08 crisis, and 70x overall into the recent $700 peak. So while stocks do go up and down and TSLA will have a major pullback/consolidation at some point, perhaps for several years, none of that means there isn't a shitload of money to be made.

No position in TSLA btw.

Good points. Wasnt really taking into account AAPL from crisis bottom, more the huge run it had when people were saying its going to 1000. But you're right about 20x moves being possible with stocks like these. Suppose my TSLA puts from this level give me a slight bias, haha. I was however long into earnings - not always contrarian fwiw :]

 

[steoli]

Quote from Builder17:

Suppose my TSLA puts from this level give me a slight bias

TSLA puts are full of premium... are you playing it via Bearish Put Spread?

 

[JesseJamesFinn]

There is nothing prevented us from blowing past $200 now, the last five trading sessions are getting ready for the next pop to $210 now. Cramer said there is a larger portion of the float Short than Nasdaq is reporting. Can the professional Traders still short on the German exchanges?


Who is stupid enough to Naked Short a Cult Stock? When we get to $210 shortly, I will sell my 253 shares. Today's price action was brilliant, it traded like SODA, GMCR, TASR, Iomega, JDSU, CIEN, Optical Coating and even old Palm Pilot. Elon has said he thought the stock was "grossly overpriced and still she keeps on moving up and up. I hope you all make some nice money on TSLA, she's gotta head for $200 now, I won't be shocked if we hit $200 over the next five to six trading days unless some shocking revelation or massive sell-off on the DOW throws us down to $150-$160, good luck Tesla longs and bears!

 

[blakpacman]

Quote from JesseJamesFinn:
There is nothing prevented us from blowing past $200 now, the last five trading sessions are getting ready for the next pop to $210 now. Cramer said there is a larger portion of the float Short than Nasdaq is reporting. Can the professional Traders still short on the German exchanges?

Back in mid 2012 I foolishly shorted TSLA at ~ $30. I noticed that it just wouldn't go down, so I covered my shorts very quickly at about the same price within a few weeks.
I'm done with trying to short individual stocks.

 

[skyriderfox]

Quote from JesseJamesFinn:

Who is stupid enough to Naked Short a Cult Stock? When we get to $210 shortly, I will sell my 253 shares. Today's price action was brilliant, it traded like SODA, GMCR, TASR, Iomega, JDSU, CIEN, Optical Coating and even old Palm Pilot. Elon has said he thought the stock was "grossly overpriced and still she keeps on moving up and up. I hope you all make some nice money on TSLA, she's gotta head for $200 now, I won't be shocked if we hit $200 over the next five to six trading days unless some shocking revelation or massive sell-off on the DOW throws us down to $150-$160, good luck Tesla longs and bears!

Good points JesseJamesFinn.

I've been in the markets 20 years and have traded many of the names you've listed. The key really is to ride the bubbles and not fear the valuations. The reality is, yes, these stocks are 'over-valued' and yes, at one point they will reach a state of implosion. Greater fool theory, we've seen this a million times.

TSLA, for example, has a market cap of 22.5 Billion. That's almost half of GM, with only 1% of the sales. But where are you, as a shareholder, going to get better short-term return? The reality is that TSLA could still climb another 20-30-40-50% from here because of the 'bubble' in this cult stock.

When do you sell? Only God knows for sure. But my guess is that when you get a huge spike, perhaps $20-30 in 1 day in a blow-off top, well, that's your sign to get out.

So, play it, but have at least a mental stop.

 

[JesseJamesFinn]

@blakpackman, when did you change over to Long? You gotta be up some nice money, I find most people who are short a stock are quick to change their outlook when movement demonstrates their wrong. When did you go for a long position?



@fox What mental position are you setting for TSLA? I have no idea where to sell, I'am not greedy just confused how far TSLA can go after watching stocks like Netflix fly! Good Luck everyone on TSLA!

 

[blakpacman]

Quote from JesseJamesFinn:
@blakpackman, when did you change over to Long? You gotta be up some nice money, I find most people who are short a stock are quick to change their outlook when movement demonstrates their wrong. When did you go for a long position?

I wish I went long. Just consider myself wise enough to be flat rather than a bankrupt Tesla short.