https://spintwig.com/tsla-short-put-45-dte-cash-secured-options-backtest/#Results
There are links there to other stocks too.
There are links there to other stocks too.
TSLA short put 45 DTE cash secured puts backtest
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
Robert Morse
Sponsor
What value do you get out of backtesting an option position when you know what the stock did over that time period?
Next time you come across a similar stock, maybe you sell CSPs on it instead of going long? (for better return)
Do this after you've come across a similar stock and gone long a few times to prove you're not a one-trick pony.
Just a few assumptions:
1. Strategies with an actual edge or generally so profitable, wouldn’t be published.
2. Profits would have to come from somewhere, so if everyone would be talking about it and doing the same trades then the stock and strategy would perform differently.
3. It should be possible to come up with even better strategies in hindsight once you zoom in on specific stock and its past performance. I have strategies that never had a losing month for up to 12 years, with 95% win rate, including one that makes 600%/year on TVIX (long/short) without a losing month since 2011. I only don’t know what to do with them, so I use them mainly to amuse myself and sometimes learn a thing or two.
1. Strategies with an actual edge or generally so profitable, wouldn’t be published.
2. Profits would have to come from somewhere, so if everyone would be talking about it and doing the same trades then the stock and strategy would perform differently.
3. It should be possible to come up with even better strategies in hindsight once you zoom in on specific stock and its past performance. I have strategies that never had a losing month for up to 12 years, with 95% win rate, including one that makes 600%/year on TVIX (long/short) without a losing month since 2011. I only don’t know what to do with them, so I use them mainly to amuse myself and sometimes learn a thing or two.
Run them on OPM
I run some of them paper and live accounts deleveraged to minimal risk, mainly to observe for now, and while working on the tech. But strategies with lesser performance seem to have more potential because losing more often means that the strategy can evolve/learn some defensive/hedging techniques. Strategies that win most of the time don’t encounter enough losses to figure out what to do when you actually do start losing. Though there are cases when winning most of the time leads to market making techniques.
The trick is to pick the right stock. And who knows what the right stock is in 2020? (OK, that is an accidental pun)
