Morningstar FV at $349~,
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After rolling our Tesla model forward a year for the 10-K filing, we increase our fair value estimate to $349 from $306. The change is primarily from increasing our midcycle operating margin by 100 basis points to 13% and increasing our total vehicles delivered over our 10-year forecast period by about 25% to 28.4 million. The midcycle margin move is to give Tesla more benefit of the doubt that the investments laid out at its September 2020 Battery Day event will yield meaningful cost reductions over time and enable more economies of scale. The vehicles sold increase is a function of rolling the model, which removes a low roughly 500,000 2020 delivery figure from the forecast and replaces it with a 4.3 million unit figure in 2030. We’ve also kept delivery growth rates elevated off of a higher starting point in our forecast, which means 2024 deliveries are now at about 2.7 million versus about 2.1 million previously. We are taking our 2021 deliveries forecast down to 800,000 from 950,000 as we expect the semiconductor shortage impacting the auto industry to slow Tesla’s production. That is still about 60% growth from 2020 which is in line with guidance of growth this year above the firm’s planned annual growth rate of 50%. We model growth rates of at least 50% through 2023 but decline this rate to the mid-single digits by 2030.
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After rolling our Tesla model forward a year for the 10-K filing, we increase our fair value estimate to $349 from $306. The change is primarily from increasing our midcycle operating margin by 100 basis points to 13% and increasing our total vehicles delivered over our 10-year forecast period by about 25% to 28.4 million. The midcycle margin move is to give Tesla more benefit of the doubt that the investments laid out at its September 2020 Battery Day event will yield meaningful cost reductions over time and enable more economies of scale. The vehicles sold increase is a function of rolling the model, which removes a low roughly 500,000 2020 delivery figure from the forecast and replaces it with a 4.3 million unit figure in 2030. We’ve also kept delivery growth rates elevated off of a higher starting point in our forecast, which means 2024 deliveries are now at about 2.7 million versus about 2.1 million previously. We are taking our 2021 deliveries forecast down to 800,000 from 950,000 as we expect the semiconductor shortage impacting the auto industry to slow Tesla’s production. That is still about 60% growth from 2020 which is in line with guidance of growth this year above the firm’s planned annual growth rate of 50%. We model growth rates of at least 50% through 2023 but decline this rate to the mid-single digits by 2030.
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glad your doing well my old friend.