TSLA Earnings - it pops 10% - up $30.00 during AH.

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vanzandt said:
I love the way these geeky analysts

Elon is intellectually superior to these guys
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High IQ and good business moral don't go hand in hand. Jeff Skilling, Zuckerberg and Madoff are all highly intelligent people, yet....Oh yeah, Bill Gates too!

On SA there are hobby analysts that predict Tesla production numbers and revenues better than any paid consultants or even Tesla guys themselves...

I can't believe Cramer actually liked the earnings call. Institutions might be afraid of dumping the stock, just yet, in case it goes higher and they look like a chump.
 
Pekelo said:
High IQ and good business moral don't go hand in hand. Jeff Skilling, Zuckerberg and Madoff are all highly intelligent people, yet....Oh yeah, Bill Gates too!

On SA there are hobby analysts that predict Tesla production numbers and revenues better than any paid consultants or even Tesla guys themselves...

I can't believe Cramer actually liked the earnings call. Institutions might be afraid of dumping the stock, just yet, in case it goes higher and they look like a chump.
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Cramer allegedly said on Mad Money that he wouldn't buy TSLA, according to some who have watched the show.

I'm no chart expert, but my feeling after looking at TSLA's two year chart is that it's trending down, and will likely drift toward $250 in the coming weeks or months. As for fundamentals, I believe most would agree that they look really bad.

Based on all currently available stats and circumstantial clues, I'd agree with the bears and speculate that Tesla will likely have to raise money again before year end, and at less favorable terms, i.e. major dilution to current TSLA shareholders coming.

Since people here are supposedly traders, one important question would be just how much longer TSLA can be propped up by those with an inherent interest to do so.
 
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This trade was a perfect example why buying options before earnings is pure gambling.

If you go directional, and you are wrong, you are guaranteed to lose 80-100%.

If you are right, you need at least 150-200% gain to compensate for the 100% risk. The stock has to move much more than the expected move in order to get those gains.
 
Kim Klaiman said:
This trade was a perfect example why buying options before earnings is pure gambling.

If you go directional, and you are wrong, you are guaranteed to lose 80-100%.

If you are right, you need at least 150-200% gain to compensate for the 100% risk. The stock has to move much more than the expected move in order to get those gains.
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This TSLA thread was one of three earnings trades I posted BEFORE earnings. The other two were FB and AAPL.

April 30 AAPL
April 25 FB
 
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OptionsOptionsOptions said:
This TSLA thread was one of three earnings trades I posted BEFORE earnings. The other two were FB and AAPL.

April 30: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/aapl-earnings-may-1.320744/

April 25: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/fb-170-after-earnings.320596/
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Well, my question is what was your edge with TSLA trade?

Here is the earnings history of last 10 cycles:

upload_2018-5-9_11-15-56.png


Your thesis was 10% up move. It happened only once in the last 10 cycles. Even at $330, your 330 call would be worth around $4, less than double.

So you would lose 100% if you were wrong on direction, and even if you were right on direction but the stock moved only 4-6% like it does most of the time, your 330 call would still be a loser. You needed 10%+ move to win, which happened only once in the last 10 cycles - and even then it was intarday move, final move was less than 5%.
 
nursebee said:
Ford shut down production today.
How many other car brands had accidents today also?
What is the base rate of accidents and deaths for each of the car brands?
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Ford is down today.

Tesla car crash is a bit different in that Tesla's Lithium battery pack is prone to flash fire with intense heat upon crash, leaving those in the car little time to get out. In the Florida crash last night, the one that got ejected from the car (not wearing the seat belt) survived the fire. Isn't that ironic?

So, instead of those funny car doors, Tesla should perhaps install ejection seats?
 
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