TSLA Earnings - 275.00 weekly Calls

Buy the rumor. Sell the news.
TSLA is priced according to deception.
So at this point there's more upside than dowside.
Well, let's see if there is any surprise, and by what degree.
However TSLA & Co look weak right now. Impatient to know too.

And respect to you OptionGuru,
For backing your opinions with trades.
 
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recession2016 said:
i think gambling on earnings is a terrible idea and should only be done for fun
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It's not a fair game.
You've got 50% chance of losing 1.
And 50% change of earning more than twice.
The expectations are in your favor in the long run.
A gambler make it for the fun. Well ... Can be fun to beat the house.
However I might be wrong. Otherwise it would be too easy.
I can't really tell since I haven't build a fortune this way.
Have you ever tried to say it's a losing game ?
 
OptionGuru said:
IMO ........ Too risky before earnings. Risk:Reward 20:1
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Have you calculated Risk:Reward for your trade? If so, how did you do it?

To put it another way, what is the expectation of your trade, say if you could put it on 1,000 times? How would you calculate it? I'm specifically asking you to verbalize the math.

I'm not comfortable with criticism of a trade that admittedly risks a lot to make a little without acknowledging the high likelihood of success. Conversely, the purchase of a deep OTM call, while "cheap", is likely to expire worthless, and is thus inherently loaded with small risk along with a dash of large reward.
 
jimmyjazz said:
Have you calculated Risk:Reward for your trade? If so, how did you do it?
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The Risk:Reward is 1:10 based on my expectation of this trade. Actual Risk:Reward will be much different after the trade is closed due to the volatility of options and very dynamic market.


jimmyjazz said:
To put it another way, what is the expectation of your trade, say if you could put it on 1,000 times? How would you calculate it? I'm specifically asking you to verbalize the math.
More...



All my trades have a 100% expected success rate upon entry.





:)
 
You don't seem to have a problem using the price of the ATM strangle to identify the market's expected range of movement over a given time frame. That's a static calculation. You can perform a similar calculation on expectation, regardless of whether or not you think it has value.
 
TSLA EARNINGS

10 minutes to market close

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:)
 
please tell me again how using options on earnings is "investing and not gambling"

IV crushed, the pop faded and your "investment" is in the crapper
 
So that appears to be it for today.
TSLA was down 9.76 on regular trading, up 11.74 after hours and is now at 234.30

TSLA filed a loss (as everyone knew they would):
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-1q-loss-203941490.html

But not as much as some predicted:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/05/04/tesla-narrows-loss-cites-demand-model-3/83934482/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q1-2016-earnings-193243906.html

Option Guru's out of the money calls are obviously worth nothing at this point.

My bear call spread is good so far but my one week trade (which, as I said I didn't make because I don't do these kinds of trades) is, so far, also worth nil. It's possible that my one week could go into the money before the week is out if TSLA falls the remainder of the week.

I don't think it's possible for optionguru's long calls to make any money and they look like a total loss... unless AAPL steps in at this point and buys TSLA.

:)

Hey...I've seen more surprising things.
 
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