TSLA Earnings - 275.00 weekly Calls

I am short TSLA, 240 calls and 265 calls. TSLA makes great cars but they have negative profit margins and an absolutely absurd, dotcom-bubble-era valuation.
 
recession2016 said:
i think gambling on earnings is a terrible idea and should only be done for fun
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The gambling analogy for options has no place in the Options forum on ET. US equity options are the most common type of equity derivative, they are sold and bought year round - including during earnings.

Be aware of the risk - below is a common disclaimer you might read on your brokers website.

"Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone. Option trading can be speculative in nature and carry substantial risk of loss. Only invest with risk capital."





:)
 
OptionGuru said:
The gambling analogy for options has no place in the Options forum on ET. US equity options are the most common type of equity derivative, they are sold and bought year round - including during earnings.

Be aware of the risk - below is a common disclaimer you might read on your brokers website.

"Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone. Option trading can be speculative in nature and carry substantial risk of loss. Only invest with risk capital."





:)
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are you really trying to justify an ER gamble with the argument that options are derivatives? :D
 
oldnemesis said:
Here's my short term trade:
With TSLA at 241.80
June 300/305 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 46 days or 42% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(25) - .09(475) - .02(238) = 22.25 - 42.75 - 4.76 = -25

Price........... Profit / Loss........ ROM %
181.35............... 25.00............. 5.26%
219.71............... 25.00............. 5.26%
260.10............... 25.00............. 5.26%
300.00............... 25.00............. 5.00%
300.25................. 0.00............. 0.00%
300.48.............. (23.20).......... -4.64%
305.00............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
340.87............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
381.25............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
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How'd you calculate your probability of success?
 
OptionGuru said:
  • TSLA earnings Wednesday May 4.
  • TSLA at $241.80.
  • TSLA 52-week high $286.00.
  • On Tuesday May 3 buy TSLA 275.00 weekly call at $1.00.
  • 10x trade if TSLA surpasses 52-week high after earnings.
  • Need about plus 20% post earnings jump.
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  • TSLA at $234.11
  • I bought the 267.50 call instead at $1.00.

Email confirmation:
2016-05-03 11:56:36 ET BOUGHT 1 CALL TSLA 2016MAY06 267.50:US at $1.00 USD






:)
 
 
Here's a real short term earnings trade that's in sync with valuations and market expectations:

with TSLA at 232.32
Buy 1 TSLA MayWk1 235 Put
Sell -1 TSLA MayWk1 225 Put

Net debit = $485

Price..... Profit / Loss..... ROI %
168.75........ 515.00......... 106.19%
192.74........ 515.00......... 106.19%
217.99........ 515.00......... 106.19%
225.00........ 515.00......... 106.19%
230.15............ 0.00............ 0.00%
235.00....... (485.00)...... -100.00%
243.24....... (485.00)...... -100.00%
268.50....... (485.00)...... -100.00%
293.75....... (485.00)...... -100.00%

Note: I am NOT making this trade. I simply don't do these kinds of trades...but it will be interesting to see what will unfold this week.
 
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