TSLA Earnings - 275.00 weekly Calls

OptionGuru

OptionGuru

What do you guys think of this TSLA earnings trade?


  • TSLA earnings Wednesday May 4.
  • TSLA at $241.80.
  • TSLA 52-week high $286.00.
  • On Tuesday May 3 buy TSLA 275.00 weekly call at $1.00.
  • 10x trade if TSLA surpasses 52-week high after earnings.
  • Need about plus 20% post earnings jump.



:)
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TSLA+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

OptionsXpress says you can get that call for $.97

Price........... Profit / Loss....... ROI %
181.35............. (97.00)........ -100.00%
212.52............. (97.00)........ -100.00%
245.33............. (97.00)........ -100.00%
275.00............. (97.00)........ -100.00%
275.97................ 0.00.............. 0.00%
278.13............. 216.40.......... 223.09%
310.94........... 3497.20........ 3605.36%
343.75........... 6778.00........ 6987.63%

Given past price distribution, prob that price is greater than 275.97 in this time frame is less than 1%...but of course that does not take into account the expected news event. Still... the news will have to be pretty good to get that kind of response.

Do you have reason to expect such a result???

What have past earnings surprises yielded in terms of price jumps?

Zacks seems dubious:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-incur-loss-again-101010043.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.TSLA.NAS
 
Last edited:
Here's my short term trade:
With TSLA at 241.80
June 300/305 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 46 days or 42% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(25) - .09(475) - .02(238) = 22.25 - 42.75 - 4.76 = -25

Price........... Profit / Loss........ ROM %
181.35............... 25.00............. 5.26%
219.71............... 25.00............. 5.26%
260.10............... 25.00............. 5.26%
300.00............... 25.00............. 5.00%
300.25................. 0.00............. 0.00%
300.48.............. (23.20).......... -4.64%
305.00............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
340.87............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
381.25............ (475.00)......... -94.74%
 
oldnemesis said:
Do you have reason to expect such a result???
More...



I believe the Tesla Model 3 pre-sales have been much higher than expected. Earnings guidance could be a big surprise and push TSLA past its high of $286.00.

Elon Musk could be the new Steve Jobs.





:)
 
OptionGuru said:
Are you willing to post a TSLA trade that supports your views?



:)
More...
No. Sorry.
Neither for, nor against.
But I myself don't ask for tips.
You ask people what they think.
I just give my BullShit of an opinion ...
 
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