TSLA Crashes to $5 per Share

[Rams Fan]

No, outstanding shares is 3.16B. At $10, market cap is $31.5B.

Isn't the cumulative lifetime profit of Tesla only around $9B? Lifetime.

And how much of that was due to gov't energy credits?

I'm not a value guy. I trade the market activity in the context of previous data (i.e. charted data).

But I don't think Tesla will be a value play until it is much lower than $63/share.

It wasn't all that long ago that a $31.5 Billion market cap was quite a market cap. GE, in 1995, was only $100B.

You know what will be the signal that Tesla is a value play?

Warren Buffet will start buying it.

 

[Rams Fan]

Tesla above 301 on Feb 29, 2023 I buy him dinner, below 301 he buys me dinner.

So where do you plan on taking your friend for his dinner?

I just loaded up at 153

Do you have a stop? I'm not asking where it is as that is none of my business. I'm just curious if you have a stop loss where you'd change your mind and want to cut the bleeding until new information developed.

 

[VicBee]

So where do you plan on taking your friend for his dinner?

In 49er land. Maybe Bungalow 44 in MV or somewhere in the City... If over 301, which would make me quite happy

 

[lwlee]

Lol.. again comparing Tesla with others in the auto industry...

I just loaded up at 153 and have a bet with a friend... Tesla above 301 on Feb 29, 2023 I buy him dinner, below 301 he buys me dinner.

TSLA volatility, your goal is not so unfounded but I think the Q4 earnings will be really important. MeetKevin's latest video shows a ton of used TSLA cars available. TSLAs are pricey and the recent backlash won't help demand. Plus TSLA is pushing discounts for people to take delivery before year end. Not a good sign.

Beyond that, lots of valid criticism on other aspects of their business. Cybertrucks is ugly, I think people will rather prefer the Rivian. I know I would never buy a Cybertruck.

Semis was lambasted by this auto guy. Reduced capacity was one of his concerns. Did TSLA consult real truck drivers to have them give feedback as to what works in a SEMI?

As for RoboTaxis and FSD, I think the equivalent of the "last mile" for self driving will really mean it will take a lot longer for this vision to be fulfilled which is COMPLETE hands off self driving. So many cases like police officers stopping traffic or road detours that I think will take much longer for FSD to solve.

Isn't the cumulative lifetime profit of Tesla only around $9B? Lifetime.

In this case, it doesn't really mattered what happen in the past so much as how TSLA is able to produce cars in the future with those amazing margins. Gigapress stamping out cars like matchbox cars is a huge innovation. To state how much they made in the past without thinking about what they can make in the future is wrong thinking. If EVs do capture 50% or more of the total auto markets, TSLA is going to have an enormous cash hoard. Probably why the other cash hoard king AAPL is looking to move into EVs.

 

[Cuddles]

TSLA volatility, your goal is not so unfounded but I think the Q4 earnings will be really important. MeetKevin's latest video shows a ton of used TSLA cars available. TSLAs are pricey and the recent backlash won't help demand. Plus TSLA is pushing discounts for people to take delivery before year end. Not a good sign.

Beyond that, lots of valid criticism on other aspects of their business. Cybertrucks is ugly, I think people will rather prefer the Rivian. I know I would never buy a Cybertruck.

Semis was lambasted by this auto guy. Reduced capacity was one of his concerns. Did TSLA consult real truck drivers to have them give feedback as to what works in a SEMI?

As for RoboTaxis and FSD, I think the equivalent of the "last mile" for self driving will really mean it will take a lot longer for this vision to be fulfilled which is COMPLETE hands off self driving. So many cases like police officers stopping traffic or road detours that I think will take much longer for FSD to solve.



In this case, it doesn't really mattered what happen in the past so much as how TSLA is able to produce cars in the future with those amazing margins. Gigapress stamping out cars like matchbox cars is a huge innovation. To state how much they made in the past without thinking about what they can make in the future is wrong thinking. If EVs do capture 50% or more of the total auto markets, TSLA is going to have an enormous cash hoard. Probably why the other cash hoard king AAPL is looking to move into EVs.

They can just OTA brick old cars, to game the supply. The cybertruck ain't happening, they can't afford that kind of flop.

 

[lwlee]

They can just OTA brick old cars, to game the supply. The cybertruck ain't happening, they can't afford that kind of flop.

Bricking doesn't matter if there is reduced demand for the car. Attacking your core EV buyers via TWTR debacle isn't helping demand. Losing those left wing liberal people is gonna be a big blow. It's definitely not the blue collared mid west people buying up those pricey Teslas.

 

[VicBee]

TSLA volatility, your goal is not so unfounded but I think the Q4 earnings will be really important. MeetKevin's latest video shows a ton of used TSLA cars available. TSLAs are pricey and the recent backlash won't help demand. Plus TSLA is pushing discounts for people to take delivery before year end. Not a good sign.

Beyond that, lots of valid criticism on other aspects of their business. Cybertrucks is ugly, I think people will rather prefer the Rivian. I know I would never buy a Cybertruck.

Semis was lambasted by this auto guy. Reduced capacity was one of his concerns. Did TSLA consult real truck drivers to have them give feedback as to what works in a SEMI?

As for RoboTaxis and FSD, I think the equivalent of the "last mile" for self driving will really mean it will take a lot longer for this vision to be fulfilled which is COMPLETE hands off self driving. So many cases like police officers stopping traffic or road detours that I think will take much longer for FSD to solve.



In this case, it doesn't really mattered what happen in the past so much as how TSLA is able to produce cars in the future with those amazing margins. Gigapress stamping out cars like matchbox cars is a huge innovation. To state how much they made in the past without thinking about what they can make in the future is wrong thinking. If EVs do capture 50% or more of the total auto markets, TSLA is going to have an enormous cash hoard. Probably why the other cash hoard king AAPL is looking to move into EVs.

Love the Aussie yabbo pitch!
But I think he is wrong about the truck weights, even if Tesla's truck is probably a bit heavier than a traditional truck. The lost load carrying capacity is only one of several other metrics used to determine optimization (fuel, repairs and round trip time are the others, if we discount driver comfort). While real cost of diesel trucks are well established, It's going to take a year or 2 to know the true cost of Tesla trucks. I would venture to say that over 5 years they are significantly cheaper to operate, even if it means running an extra truck to make up the short loads.

As for FSD or robotaxis... Meh, I don't believe in them so I've nothing to say.

 

[deaddog]

Being that we are all traders on this forum, at what price would TSLA need to drop to for you to start loading up?

I'll start a small position if and when the trend changes and load up if the stock moves in my favor. Always prepared to take a small loss and miss a big move, better than taking a big loss.

 

[VicBee]

it doesn't really mattered what happen in the past so much as how TSLA is able to produce cars in the future with those amazing margins. Gigapress stamping out cars like matchbox cars is a huge innovation. To state how much they made in the past without thinking about what they can make in the future is wrong thinking. If EVs do capture 50% or more of the total auto markets, TSLA is going to have an enormous cash hoard. Probably why the other cash hoard king AAPL is looking to move into EVs.

Bingo
Let's remember that Tesla doesn't have a demand problem but an enviable supply constraint that should be resolved once Austin and Berlin operate at full capacity.
The naysayers telling competition is going to eat Tesla's lunch have been saying it for at least 3 years, yet Tesla remains firmly in the lead and competition is.... Maybe 2023?
The EV market is expanding, through supply and demand as well as government edicts. In 12 years time, I expect 80+% of the Euro market will be EVs and 60+% of the US market. Some red, oil states will have legislated required gas stations and taxed EVs high enough to keep them out of state. And those who whine about government subsidies will find it totally normal to support the American way of life!

 

[lwlee]

Love the Aussie yabbo pitch!
But I think he is wrong about the truck weights, even if Tesla's truck is probably a bit heavier than a traditional truck. The lost load carrying capacity is only one of several other metrics used to determine optimization (fuel, repairs and round trip time are the others, if we discount driver comfort). While real cost of diesel trucks are well established, It's going to take a year or 2 to know the true cost of Tesla trucks. I would venture to say that over 5 years they are significantly cheaper to operate, even if it means running an extra truck to make up the short loads.

As for FSD or robotaxis... Meh, I don't believe in them so I've nothing to say.

Yeah, the guy is quite sharp. Watch his follow-up video as he refutes naysayers.

I've heard other complaints about the cab interior not being practical. Sitting near the window allows dealing with toll booths or other interactions requiring paperwork. Lots of truck drivers also live in their vehicles to optimize time so the lack of cab sleeping space is a problem. Charging time with the megawatt charger could be another concern. At the very least it will slow adoption as that infrastructure is built out. But the mandate is cleaner env so if TSLA is responsive, they should be able to resolve most of those issues.