TSLA 2019
- Thread starter nursebee
- Start date
I see quicker than usual acceleration as a danger to other drivers. Most drivers got used to how other cars can accelerate so they judge their movements according to that. Until EVs showed up only motorcycles and supercars were so much faster. I can usually hear a bike coming up behind me, and I can recognize a supercar in my rear window. But EVs are quiet and don't look much different than other cars, so nothing alerts the driver that this might be a quickly accelerating car and he has to account for that.
Has this ever happened to you, when other cars pulled in front of you not expecting you coming up that fast on them? This would only happen when you step on it and the rate of change is probably slower at higher speed. (like 70 to 90, let's say)
But still could happen in slower city traffic when an EV decides to change lanes quickly.
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Facts
40B cap on 22.5 B sales = TSLA
Ford 41 B cap, 158 B sales
Toyota 193B Cap, 275 B sales
AMZN 939 B Cap, 241 B sales
Compared to tech/growth, TSLA value can be justified. Compared to autos, not so much.
What has to happen is TSLA needs to demonstrate continued growth to drive future expectations and value. As it is now, the word in public is model 3 is stagnant, battery capacity limited such that other models can't be brought forward, they just bought a new company that might improve value but can't just turn that spigot on. Perhaps the Y and Semi and roadster are all ready to to into production yet they need battery cells and perhaps MXWL tech integration first. Perhaps TSLA goes it alone with battery building using the new tech but will remain constrained by scaling up. In many ways, the TSLA story seems on hold until this all gets sorted out. Changing the story from transportation to TAAS really takes some getting used to. If mutual funds bought the auto company but EM pivoted to TAAS, the premise for trade entry is gone and ought to be exited. This is true for everyone, if the reasons to enter a trade are no longer there, GET OUT.
In order to move up, I think the battery growth has to happen, they have to decide what they are going to do with MXWL tech, then bring forth new products for more growth. Perhaps they can grow double with China factory but they will need more manufacturing space for Y, semi, truck, and others. This can't happen overnight. There is no rush to own TSLA here and now. I think they are walking a tight rope financially with all this growth and hope the latest round fuels the future.
On TAAS, it is real tough to judge the value. UBER and Lyft are kind of comps, but are in a different sector compared to EVs. One million autonomous taxis on the road in a hear? Horse tonky, all those owners are not going to let them out. They are too busy complaining and manufacturing issues, their 10K clear coats, their paint quality etc... to let loose the car out of their sight. More so true for X/S owners (excess owners). Rare will be the person that puts their car into service. Hence the leasing for TSLA to get the cars back. Perhaps in 3 years the TAAS segment will grow then.
What is wrong with the new chip/computer that they publicly acknowledge that they are already half thru design of the next one?
$300-400 share price might be justifiable when these issues are figured out. Each of them has chance of failure. If all of them have to come true to justify much higher prices, like the half trillion market cap, it really looks hair brained.
What are the chances of the following:
TSLA EV growth to 1M cars a year in next 5 years? I say 25%.
MXWL integration next 3 years? 50%
Increased capacity for all models next 3 years using MXWL tech to scale? 10%
TAAS as being sold by EM next 3 years? 5%
Self driving being allowed in US and elsewhere so that it can be a driver of revenue, next 3 years? 5%
Solar and/or battery adoption in more TSLA households, any time frame? 25%
Large battery storage capacity growth, using MXWL and able to grow to scare, next 3-5 years? 20%
Chances of all of the above happening? Take whatever percent estimates you have given the value drivers of the future and MULTIPLY them together and you get the percent chance of that happening. using the above figures there is 0.00015% chance of all of them happening. If you think there is a 95% chance of each of the above happening, there is only a 73% chance of all of them happening.
In total, their is a slim to none chance of TSLA being a 500 B market cap company any time soon...
40B cap on 22.5 B sales = TSLA
Ford 41 B cap, 158 B sales
Toyota 193B Cap, 275 B sales
AMZN 939 B Cap, 241 B sales
Compared to tech/growth, TSLA value can be justified. Compared to autos, not so much.
What has to happen is TSLA needs to demonstrate continued growth to drive future expectations and value. As it is now, the word in public is model 3 is stagnant, battery capacity limited such that other models can't be brought forward, they just bought a new company that might improve value but can't just turn that spigot on. Perhaps the Y and Semi and roadster are all ready to to into production yet they need battery cells and perhaps MXWL tech integration first. Perhaps TSLA goes it alone with battery building using the new tech but will remain constrained by scaling up. In many ways, the TSLA story seems on hold until this all gets sorted out. Changing the story from transportation to TAAS really takes some getting used to. If mutual funds bought the auto company but EM pivoted to TAAS, the premise for trade entry is gone and ought to be exited. This is true for everyone, if the reasons to enter a trade are no longer there, GET OUT.
In order to move up, I think the battery growth has to happen, they have to decide what they are going to do with MXWL tech, then bring forth new products for more growth. Perhaps they can grow double with China factory but they will need more manufacturing space for Y, semi, truck, and others. This can't happen overnight. There is no rush to own TSLA here and now. I think they are walking a tight rope financially with all this growth and hope the latest round fuels the future.
On TAAS, it is real tough to judge the value. UBER and Lyft are kind of comps, but are in a different sector compared to EVs. One million autonomous taxis on the road in a hear? Horse tonky, all those owners are not going to let them out. They are too busy complaining and manufacturing issues, their 10K clear coats, their paint quality etc... to let loose the car out of their sight. More so true for X/S owners (excess owners). Rare will be the person that puts their car into service. Hence the leasing for TSLA to get the cars back. Perhaps in 3 years the TAAS segment will grow then.
What is wrong with the new chip/computer that they publicly acknowledge that they are already half thru design of the next one?
$300-400 share price might be justifiable when these issues are figured out. Each of them has chance of failure. If all of them have to come true to justify much higher prices, like the half trillion market cap, it really looks hair brained.
What are the chances of the following:
TSLA EV growth to 1M cars a year in next 5 years? I say 25%.
MXWL integration next 3 years? 50%
Increased capacity for all models next 3 years using MXWL tech to scale? 10%
TAAS as being sold by EM next 3 years? 5%
Self driving being allowed in US and elsewhere so that it can be a driver of revenue, next 3 years? 5%
Solar and/or battery adoption in more TSLA households, any time frame? 25%
Large battery storage capacity growth, using MXWL and able to grow to scare, next 3-5 years? 20%
Chances of all of the above happening? Take whatever percent estimates you have given the value drivers of the future and MULTIPLY them together and you get the percent chance of that happening. using the above figures there is 0.00015% chance of all of them happening. If you think there is a 95% chance of each of the above happening, there is only a 73% chance of all of them happening.
In total, their is a slim to none chance of TSLA being a 500 B market cap company any time soon...
Wedbush drops its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $230 from $275 after once uber-bull Dan Ives sees even darker clouds just ahead for the Neutral-rated EV automaker.
"We continue to have major concerns around the trajectory of Tesla's growth prospects and underlying demand on Model 3 in the US over the coming quarters which is putting more heat in the kitchen on Musk & Tesla to reign in expenses at an accelerated rate with profitability targets in 2H19 a Kilimanjaro-like uphill climb," warns Ives.
Ives and team sees a best case deliveries total of 360K to 370K for the full year and a base case scenario of 340K to 355K.
"Additionally, with a code red situation at Tesla, Musk & Co. are expanding into insurance, robotaxis, and other sci-fi projects/endeavors when the company instead should be laser focused on shoring up core demand for Model 3 and simplifying its business model and expense structure in our opinion with headwinds abound," he goes on.
Shares of Tesla are down 3.57% premarket to $203.60 after shedding 7.58% on Friday. Tesla hasn't traded below $200 since late in 2016.
"We continue to have major concerns around the trajectory of Tesla's growth prospects and underlying demand on Model 3 in the US over the coming quarters which is putting more heat in the kitchen on Musk & Tesla to reign in expenses at an accelerated rate with profitability targets in 2H19 a Kilimanjaro-like uphill climb," warns Ives.
Ives and team sees a best case deliveries total of 360K to 370K for the full year and a base case scenario of 340K to 355K.
"Additionally, with a code red situation at Tesla, Musk & Co. are expanding into insurance, robotaxis, and other sci-fi projects/endeavors when the company instead should be laser focused on shoring up core demand for Model 3 and simplifying its business model and expense structure in our opinion with headwinds abound," he goes on.
Shares of Tesla are down 3.57% premarket to $203.60 after shedding 7.58% on Friday. Tesla hasn't traded below $200 since late in 2016.
S and X together sell 80Kish this year. M3 never sustained 5K/week production and even if they could, they can't sell them. So the max. best case scenario would be 330-340K, but they should be happy if they can break the 300K delivered. Unless some heavy discounting to get ride of the 20+K inventory, but that would kill their bottom line.
They have been above 5k a week for a while
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Bloomberg's Tesla tracker has been very inaccurate. Look at delivery numbers, not VINs...They needed a tent and 2 shifts including weekend work just to reach 5K. But they never really did it on a sustained level. Now it could be argued that they could do it, they just can't sell the cars so they are not doing it.
Their paint station is the bottle neck. There is a CA limit what they can't step over, thus the very thin paint job on the cars.
Also there is the issue of meaning of factory gated cars.
Their paint station is the bottle neck. There is a CA limit what they can't step over, thus the very thin paint job on the cars.
Also there is the issue of meaning of factory gated cars.