Trying out an E2T TCP 50

That's the statistics per trade
Since the beginning of this journal
(Previous Combine + Current Combine)

upload_2023-4-24_22-6-12.png


Trying to size my bets with Kelly Criterion,
But it doesn't sounds viable.
9% risk per trade LOL
65% x 16%

upload_2023-4-24_22-23-39.png


Take 65% out of your 3.8K to the casino,
Wager 16% out of the 65% + PnL per bets
 
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Day #9

Down twice my max Loss
Wiped out 3 days in 1 day

Was in DD all day.
Max profit was zero.

Tried to recover but … Nope
Took a lot of nonsense trades,
Could have made my day on CL,
But I cut my profit short like a pussy

upload_2023-4-25_17-35-44.png


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Wrote down 3096 instead of 3069
Definitely not accepting it (LOL)

6 Days 2 Go
 
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legionx said:
@Sekiyo , nice attempt though.

I am curious as to what was the main reason for the blown-out account if you don't mind sharing?
More...

Hi @legionx

Thanks for asking.

Blew up because I’ve been undisciplined,
I spent way too much time fighting with the market.

My internal battery was drained,
I compounded mistakes,
Then I hit the wall.

At one point I was almost to equity high,
Then I decided it wasn’t enough,
Kept fighting but no luck.

I wanted something at all cost.
I literally said “I make it or blow up”
Took my dog. Gone for a walk. Came back.

Lost 15pts with 2c (1500$) : Failed
Hit the trailing DD rule

I’ll give it another try …
Thought about trading Micro with 200$
But I’d rather give it another try, next month.

1st error was to lose twice my max daily loss.
2nd error was to want to reach equity high.
3rd error was to fight a losing battle.
4th error was to totally give up.
 
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With TCP50 you need to 2.5x your account twice (6.25x)
To withdraw your first 2,400$ (50K Combine Payoff)

To achieve the same Payoff after 6.25x a self funded account,
I'd need at least 384$ which is not that crazy an amount.

Interesting.

Made this little table.
upload_2023-4-28_2-6-24.png


Shows what self funded account is needed,
To achieve the same amount of Payoff as an E2T TCP 50,
Based on the cumulative returns required to validate the level.

Returns are based on
(Profit Goal + EOD Drawdown) / EOD Drawdown

Btw 333 and 424$
(Crazy when you see it this way)

That's why the 190$ E2T is attractive,
Especially when it's at a discount (95$) !
But you have rules + other inconveniences.

Something not taken into account is ...
You can spend all the E2T profits and still trade,
While you can't spend all your self funded account and still trade.

There are Pros and Cons
 
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Next billing is May 13th (95$)
Have to wait otherwise I’ll pay 195$.
Unless there’s a discount in between …

See you then.

Ps: Ditched NT entirely,
Trading full Rithmic R Trader Pro.
Charts are fine enough for my taste.

Using a candlestick 1min + 5min.
No indicator. No drawing … That’s fine !
 
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Not much advice I can give you Trading wise @Sekiyo as you know your stuff. This is a great thread and you seem to be a good person. Just know I and others are hoping you come back stronger and achieve your goals, whatever you decide is best for you :)
 
What's your average profit and average loss, @Sekiyo?

I may have a paper thin edge and the only explanation I have for making money recently is that my average win is typically 2x my average loss and that I only add to a winning trade and never average down.

I'm in drawdown from equity highs earlier this month, but updating my Excel sheets yesterday I was pleased to find that I still made 100 ES points last month with a win rate below 50 % and my piker account grew by 54 % net.

I still do a lot of mistakes, but thanks to limiting the downside most of the time and pressing my winners I'm able to get ahead. I'm also a big fan of adding to a winner and never averaging down.

For example, it's not uncommon for me to start the day or week in drawdown by say as much as 25 ES points, but then I'll get a good entry, add to the trade and make it all back and then some on my next big winner. The best days are of course when I'm able to avoid the drawdown and hit the big one on my first few attempts. Of course, I hope to become a better and more disciplined trader avoiding those drawdowns in the first place, but it's nice to know that it's possible to make money without being perfect.

I'm not even sure I'm a better technical trader this year compared to last year, but this change in behavior have helped me make money. In the past, I would focus more on win rate and banking profits quickly, but it's no use securing certain profits that are small if you end up taking losses that are bigger. I could have winning streaks of 20 winning days in a row and then give it all back on a losing day. That's simply a higher win rate system, but yet one with a negative expectancy.

Bottom line, it's possible, I think, to make money even with a sub-par method as long as you're able to press your winners and limit the downside always taking your losses on your smallest size and keeping them small. The key is of course to actually press your winners and run home some big winners as well.
 
Thanks @Darc for the kind words.

Feedbacks are welcome even though I am not sharing much myself.
Hope I can lead this journal further down the steps of E2T's career path.
Definitely need to learn from my mistakes to get farther and achieve my goals.
I am glad to be able to say "I suck here and there". Otherwise I'd not be able to improve !

Wish you the best.
 
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