Trump's got the worst stock market in my life time

murray t turtle said:
D%%
That + virus turned out to be mostly less than flu;
unless one was unhealthy or about 107 years old......................................
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(Smiles)

Lot's of text bellow, related to covi, marked in white. As some spoiler. Mark it, in order to read it. (if one wants to)

And,... I just, can't get my head around it. Members, who pretend to know a lot, based on their posts (which i will not share) , looked - scared. To the best of my judgement, they were scared during the march lows. Not for the market, but because of the health reasons. Who's health - i don't know.

Like
#1 - one should not buy into the story since the numbers came out of CCP
#2 - how, with that many years of experience, they couldn't see through the bs ocean of media.

I got few ideas :

#1 - those members had UC, thus, fear, & partially, real danger for them, clouded their judgement.
#2 - they're not that which they pretend to be, because, how could one make it big in this game while unable to analyze data & etc.
#3 - the necessary skill barrier to make in this game, is, way much lower than what i expected.
#4 - my judgement failed and they were not afraid. Which is, based on their posts and topics, very unlikely.

I know that some of them had negative/red years few times. This way, the picture slowly reveals itself, piece by piece.
(unless, those red years were in the very begging of their journey & it could be considered as learning losses)

Oh, whatever. Covi was a great opportunity to make em $$$ & €€€. Grateful, to participate in it, back then, yet, without real account, yet, as a very close observer.
A screenshot attached bellow, with marked text :

 

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RGLD said:
But the new president suggest we should completely lockdown again.
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Fundamentally, it can't have as much of impact as it had the first time. Average people don't care about it as they did in first ,,introduction'' (or more likely, - indoctrination)

Actually, they care ~5 times less than about the weather :
Screenshot (116).png


We have a second lock down here, a month already. Bad for restaurants, but not as bad as it was before. Away from that, everything is usual.
(simply put, no one gives a damn anymore)
 
Yeah this idea for a thread is really off in the weeds. Trump aside - this market has been great for traders.

And if you held US stocks from November 2016 until now - you've killed.

So this premise is wacked.

RGLD said:
Unlike in 2008, we had a clear recession. The market just kept going down and it eventually turned around. Remember I say stock market - NOT economy.

Trump's market is all about rallying than sudden drops that break records with high volatility.

Remember Feb 2nd 2018? For no reason, the market just dropped like 10% in a day and it took it the rest of the year to recover. Than later that year from Oct-Dec, we had one of the worst declines in history, the worst end of year in history where the market lost most of what it gained the entire year maybe going back to 2017. Now we have the covid lows with the market dropping 35% in only a few weeks and bouncing back in 6 months.

I mean seriously, what the hell. Do traders have short memories or something because the volatility from 2018 still scares me to this day and I refuse to buy too big into any position. This did not happen during Obama's term. Can you blame Trump's trade war or is the the market in general?

Maybe in 2021 the S&P will rally to 4,000, than drop back to covid lows of 2,200 in 2 week. Anyone see that happening?
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bone said:
Yeah this idea for a thread is really off in the weeds. Trump aside - this market has been great for traders.

And if you held US stocks from November 2016 until now - you've killed.

So this premise is wacked.
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So true...My dad dumped his SP holdings on Feb 27 and I thought he was a genius. But I hesitated to tell him the market would probably recover...but as a scalper I could not in good conscience tell him that. This market does whatever it wants.
 
Some of us have margin accounts and can't stand the sudden drops after the S&P moves average 1% daily for months.

I lost money cause I had to liquidate due to some of the big drops. The fools would tell you to have a cash account instead. That's like saving up to buy a house in cash.
 
And having a margin account allows you to short sell shares, correct?

And this 35% stock market drop you speak of happened over a period of 23 trading days, correct?

On Feb 25, 26, 27, and 28th the markets sold off pretty hard. On March 03, the Fed cut interest rates one-half percentage point in a surprise move and markets consolidated for four trading days - before the real damage (percentage wise) started on the next leg down March 09. My point being - there were indeed opportunities to either lighten up or to short sell the market.

This wasn't a two trading day move. It was a twenty three trading day move.


RGLD said:
Some of us have margin accounts and can't stand the sudden drops after the S&P moves average 1% daily for months.

I lost money cause I had to liquidate due to some of the big drops. The fools would tell you to have a cash account instead. That's like saving up to buy a house in cash.
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I've posted before that going long the US indices via spreadbetting (I'm in the UK) has been my most profitable trading tactic. Its certainly not hard. A nice feature of the indices' price action is their regular pull-backs. The deeper the pull-back, the better the buy.

As for Feb 2018, yes, that was a steep correction, but probably should have been anticipated after the parabolic upward move from April 2017. The rise from there on the Dow was +29%, and the February '18 correction only -10% from the top at worst. That'll do for me.
 
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