Trumpiness is a strong indicator of a high Covid death rate - Most deadly U.S. Counties

G

gwb-trading

"Trumpiness is a strong indicator of a high Covid death rate, as shown by this list of the most deadly 100 counties in the USA".

This should not surprise anyone -- Trump voting counties have the highest per capita COVID Death and Case rates.

Weekly Update: Which COUNTIES have the highest per capita rates of #COVID19 cases and deaths?
Sat, 03/06/2021 - 12:01pm
https://acasignups.net/21/03/07/wee...highest-capita-rates-covid19-cases-and-deaths

The data below comes from the GitHub data repositories of Johns Hopkins University, except for Utah, which comes from the GitHub data of the New York Times due to JHU not breaking the state out by county but by "region" for some reason.

Important:
  • Every county except those in Alaska lists the 2020 Biden/Trump partisan lean; Alaska still uses the 2016 Clinton/Trump results (the 2020 Alaska results are only available by state legislative district, not by county/borough for some reason...if anyone has that info let me know)
  • I define a "Swing District" as one where the difference between Biden & Trump was less than 6.0%. FWIW, there's just 187 swing districts (out of over 3,100 total), with around 33.7 million Americans out of 332 million total, or roughly 10.2% of the U.S. population.
  • For the U.S. territories, Puerto Rico only includes the case breakout, not deaths, which are unavailable by county equivalent for some reason.
With those caveats in mind, here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 cases as of Friday, March 5th, 2021 (click image for high-res version).
  • Blue = Joe Biden won by more than 6 points
  • Orange = Donald Trump won by more than 6 points
  • Yellow = Swing District (Biden or Trump won by less than 6 points)
100counties_cases_030521_1.jpg


Crowley County, Colorado still holds the #1 spot. 2,072 of their 6,061 residents have now tested positive for #COVID19, or 34.1% of their total population.

For what it's worth, the top 100 top counties voted for Donald Trump by 2.6 points.

Here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 fatalities as of Friday, March 5th, 2021

100counties_deaths_030521.jpg


The #1 spot is still Jerauld County, South Dakota, where 16 out of the county's 2,013 residents have died of COVID-19, or 0.8%. That's 1 out of every 125 residents.

The 100 counties with the highest COVID-19 death rates voted for Donald Trump by 18 points.

It's also worth noting how the ratio of per capita cases and mortality have shifted between the Blue and Red-leaning counties over time.

Back in mid-March, the case rate was 450% higher and the mortality rate was 530% higher in blue counties than red counties (defined as counties which voted for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump). Due to my updating most of the counties to reflect the 2020 results instead of 2016, the lines for both cases and deaths per capita jumped around a bit for a few weeks as I updated counties in all 50 states, but they've now mostly settled back into the same pattern, continuing to shift from blue to red.

As of today, both cumulative COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per capita are running higher in the Red Counties:
  • Cumulative Cases per 1,000 residents: Red Counties: 91.1; Blue Counties: 84.2 (8.2% higher in Red Counties)
  • Cumulative Deaths per 10,000 residents: Red Counties: 16.1; Blue Counties: 15.7 (2.7% higher in Red Counties)
covid_red_blue_counties_ratio_27.jpg


I've also taken a look at the counties with the lowest rates of COVID-19 cases and fatalities:
  • There are now just 50 counties nationwide which haven't reported any COVID-19 deaths as of yet, down from 52 a week ago.
Total combined population of these 50 counties? 192,000 people.
  • There are only 3 counties nationwide which haven't reported any cases yet:
    • Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska
    • Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, Alaska
    • Kalawao County, Hawaii
Total combined population of these 3 counties? 3,070 people.
 
I spoze there is an argument that can be made making the case that the reason blacks and hispanics have a higher rate of covid is because they overwhelmingly live in democrat elected officials districts.

I try not to go full idiot this early in the week though.

If others would do the same that would be great.
 
gwb-trading said:
"Trumpiness is a strong indicator of a high Covid death rate, as shown by this list of the most deadly 100 counties in the USA".

This should not surprise anyone -- Trump voting counties have the highest per capita COVID Death and Case rates.

Weekly Update: Which COUNTIES have the highest per capita rates of #COVID19 cases and deaths?
Sat, 03/06/2021 - 12:01pm
https://acasignups.net/21/03/07/wee...highest-capita-rates-covid19-cases-and-deaths

The data below comes from the GitHub data repositories of Johns Hopkins University, except for Utah, which comes from the GitHub data of the New York Times due to JHU not breaking the state out by county but by "region" for some reason.

Important:
  • Every county except those in Alaska lists the 2020 Biden/Trump partisan lean; Alaska still uses the 2016 Clinton/Trump results (the 2020 Alaska results are only available by state legislative district, not by county/borough for some reason...if anyone has that info let me know)
  • I define a "Swing District" as one where the difference between Biden & Trump was less than 6.0%. FWIW, there's just 187 swing districts (out of over 3,100 total), with around 33.7 million Americans out of 332 million total, or roughly 10.2% of the U.S. population.
  • For the U.S. territories, Puerto Rico only includes the case breakout, not deaths, which are unavailable by county equivalent for some reason.
With those caveats in mind, here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 cases as of Friday, March 5th, 2021 (click image for high-res version).
  • Blue = Joe Biden won by more than 6 points
  • Orange = Donald Trump won by more than 6 points
  • Yellow = Swing District (Biden or Trump won by less than 6 points)
100counties_cases_030521_1.jpg


Crowley County, Colorado still holds the #1 spot. 2,072 of their 6,061 residents have now tested positive for #COVID19, or 34.1% of their total population.

For what it's worth, the top 100 top counties voted for Donald Trump by 2.6 points.

Here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 fatalities as of Friday, March 5th, 2021

100counties_deaths_030521.jpg


The #1 spot is still Jerauld County, South Dakota, where 16 out of the county's 2,013 residents have died of COVID-19, or 0.8%. That's 1 out of every 125 residents.

The 100 counties with the highest COVID-19 death rates voted for Donald Trump by 18 points.

It's also worth noting how the ratio of per capita cases and mortality have shifted between the Blue and Red-leaning counties over time.

Back in mid-March, the case rate was 450% higher and the mortality rate was 530% higher in blue counties than red counties (defined as counties which voted for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump). Due to my updating most of the counties to reflect the 2020 results instead of 2016, the lines for both cases and deaths per capita jumped around a bit for a few weeks as I updated counties in all 50 states, but they've now mostly settled back into the same pattern, continuing to shift from blue to red.

As of today, both cumulative COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per capita are running higher in the Red Counties:
  • Cumulative Cases per 1,000 residents: Red Counties: 91.1; Blue Counties: 84.2 (8.2% higher in Red Counties)
  • Cumulative Deaths per 10,000 residents: Red Counties: 16.1; Blue Counties: 15.7 (2.7% higher in Red Counties)
covid_red_blue_counties_ratio_27.jpg


I've also taken a look at the counties with the lowest rates of COVID-19 cases and fatalities:
  • There are now just 50 counties nationwide which haven't reported any COVID-19 deaths as of yet, down from 52 a week ago.
Total combined population of these 50 counties? 192,000 people.
  • There are only 3 counties nationwide which haven't reported any cases yet:
    • Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska
    • Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, Alaska
    • Kalawao County, Hawaii
Total combined population of these 3 counties? 3,070 people.
More...

This is an interesting analysis but I question if this stuff isn’t seasonal or cyclical. Haters are going to come by this comment and say that would mean masks don’t work but eu contrare blue counties are at a population density disadvantage and transmission is much more likely. My hypothesis would be red counties are just killing people by foregoing basic compliance measures and not leveraging their less density advantages. The whole situation is sad.
 
jem said:
So many factors to consider starting with age and hospitals experience.
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Well something we can agree on --- there are many more factors at work here than just the voting inclination of the people in these counties. Factors include (but are not limited to) quality of medical care/hospitals, typical medical conditions of the population, average age, population density, season when COVID was prevalent plus compliance with public health measures to limit disease. Both UsualName and yourself bring up a number of reasonable points.

I posted this particular analysis (from a blogger) so it could be debated. While there is some merit that voting inclination is coupled to public health measure compliance -- there are more factors at work than this single factor. Yet folks will have to admit that many of the counties in the top 100 are red.
 
UsualName said:
...My hypothesis would be red counties are just killing people by foregoing basic compliance measures and not leveraging their less density advantages. The whole situation is sad.
More...

I like your hypothesis because I'm a strong believer there's just too many moving parts (variables) in the United States to pinpoint why some counties, cities, states and health guidelines being applied in each that results in different Covid performances.
  • This is the primary reason why those that say lockdowns don't work are talking out of their asses considering there's too many statistical data that had showed the dramatic declines in infections, hospitalization/ICUs, deaths from Covid...
That then showed the impact of "re-opening" with complacency / misinformation had on the country as a common variables to the resurgence in Covid.

Actually, with the growing threat of the variants in the United States...I see similar reactions in many counties, cities and states that got them into trouble with Covid in the first place when they ignore the health guidelines.

I guess that's a normal reaction because people know vaccinations are here and think its time to party sort'uv speak as if vaccination will take away all their problems.

wrbtrader
 
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Tony Stark said:
True.And red states are the most unhealthy,physicallly and mentally imo.

View attachment 254069
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I've been following the interactive charts about the "healthiness of each state" for many months now...watching the changes from month to month.

At one point (can't remember the specific months)...it almost looked like a voting map of the U.S. elections.

wrbtrader
 
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