Trump, the wall, and Keynes v Friedman. The ultimate battle.

natural forces or the invisible hand is a theory. For it to work as expected, the theory presumes the presence of floating exchange rates and the absence of govt interference. In short it presumes are countries are open to trade and the currency will balance the strong economies vs the weak ones. As the weak ones get stronger their exchange rates will cause new balances to happen.

so:

1. What happens is the govt and private central banks screw with the exchange rates?
2. what happens if a private central bank not the govt creates trillions of one currency and spread it around the world buying influence and assets and then pulling manufacturing out of the home country.

this is the big one...

3. Why do you presume that protecting jobs and creating complex goods the world demands in the home country will not result in a stronger economy and thereby a stronger currency. Therefore happy home consumers buying goods from overseas for less currency? It worked in asia. It worked in the US in the past.

I just don't think a weak economy and weak currency helps locals consumers in any time frame but a very short one.


I think value and wealth are created by making better products, and/or at a better price. China became wealthier by providing products at a lower price. I think the US became wealthier once upon a time by making better products at a better price. I do not accept the premise that we made nothing but standard fare products and became wealthy because the gov't forced everyone to buy them instead of better/cheaper stuff from overseas. It creates no wealth. It only redistributes what's in one pocket to another pocket.
Creating better/cheaper products makes the business that created it wealthy, and it also enhances the life of the people who bought it, because they have more money for other things.

And that's the problem with floating exchange rates and tariffs. People learn very quickly that they can charge a higher price for their labors and do less work if all they have to do is place a tariff or adjust the currency to keep the competition out.

People only buy products because it makes their life better. If gov't forces them to buy a product which isn't as good or cheap as one from overseas, then that person is less well off than they would have been.

I think it's an economic fallacy to think that wealth can be created by keeping competition out and not creating better/cheaper products. It only takes from one guy and gives to another.
 
I don't understand why a factory in china builds wealth but one here is a problem. Isn't it better to build wealth here rather than in china?

We've tried the "free trade" route for over 20 years, and there is widespread consensus, outside the C suite of big companies and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, that it has produced uneven results at best and has had a devastating effect on lots of workers. It's great to be able to buy cheap crap at WalMart but it is hardly solace if you have lost your job.

The fact is that these big trade deals were never strictly about economics. They were in fact more about getting china hooked on capitalism, so they wouldn't start a war, and trying to use access to our market to advance diplomatic or security interests.

Priorities change. China is big and powerful now and we don't want them getting any richer until they dial back their aggression. Moreover, as Pat Buchanan says, economic efficiency is not a religious duty. It is a goal, but it is one goal among many.

Thank you.

China's economy is roughly half the size of America. The next largest economy (Japan) is about 1/4'er the size of China. We don't want the Communist Chinese running the world. The Libertards think America is bad??? No. Time to take China down about five pegs. Maximum, China's economy should be no bigger then 25% of America's. Keep them in line. They don't value human life over there.
 
You said... "I think it's an economic fallacy to think that wealth can be created by keeping competition out and not creating better/cheaper products. It only takes from one guy and gives to another."

What if one country forces its companies to care about the environment and provide for pensions.

Might it not make sense for those burdens to also be shared by the other country through a tariff? Otherwise the only local jobs you might have left are construction jobs.
 
Thanks, Guys. I appreciate the feedback. Constructive criticism always welcome !!!!

Yes, you're right. VIX options, and all products that follow exhibit high theta decay. WC schooled my ass a few months ago on it lol

I retract my VIX call......

No need to retract it. The VIX is going to be going back up, but we can't trade it directly. I am looking at the some of option prices to see if anything may be worth while.
 
No need to retract it. The VIX is going to be going back up, but we can't trade it directly. I am looking at the some of option prices to see if anything may be worth while.

Lemmie know if u find something. The dotm long dated options looked a bit pricey to me last week...
 
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