I Have studied USA financial history going back to birth of the country, we all have our beliefs and I have always done well in what to buy and sell. Even the best land deals around go down in prices. I have owned first rental houses for 41 years back in Chicago, it just time for me to unload and get into better deals for me. Tired of being a landlord too. What you want changes as you get older, you want less hassle and more calmness like selling Indexes, LOL
Trump says stock market is all a big bubble....
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
gotcha... being a landlord sucks.... bulk land though.... its a no-brainer for the young. You're already set though.... so sit back and enjoy
PS.... my tomato crop is the best in years! Had a great salad for breakfast.
That's great. Do you farm many acres or little bit smaller? I am studying greenhouses and using non dirt materials, experts say better to grow tomatoes up vines to get more air than along the ground, what say you?gotcha... being a landlord sucks.... bulk land though.... its a no-brainer for the young. You're already set though.... so sit back and enjoy
PS.... my tomato crop is the best in years! Had a great salad for breakfast.
Yes, the long term traders definitely "need to thread with caution" before the cycle changes, which it inevitably always does, without exception.
The margin debt goes up and down in cycles as well. Take for instance in October 2007, when the market peaked, the margin debt was slightly over $345 BILLION. It created a trough of almost 50% to around $173 BILLION by February 2009, when long term investors were BURIED after the financial crisis and the S&P had lost over 40%.
During the recent multi year bull market, the margin debt has slowly crept up again, surpassing the $500 BILLION mark twice in 2015 (April and June), and currently hovering in the mid $450 BILLION range.
How low the margin debt will go is anyone's guess, but it will surely drop again to a new trough, and long term investors will get BURIED, once again!
The margin calls are coming...
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8
So... Basically this thread has no point? Short-term traders are not affected at all, and long-terms will simply have to take into account the fact that they should have taken to begin with anyway?
No different to most threads, as in, complete waste of time!
Short term traders still lose, as it all depends on what they know, when they trade, and how much money they have.
The point some of us are making, is, the cycle appears to be nearing completion to the upside - US elections might drag it out a bit more?
Only time will tell!
J_S
Nice table - didn't see that one before.
Stock Buybacks might also be topping - have a chart, will post later.
J_S
It's all about cycles and patterns, which tend to repeat over and over throughout history.
As mentioned prior, this is one of my favorite tables, done by Yardeni Research. It shows the bull and bear market cycles for the S&P 500 since 1929.
Even during the 17 year massive secular bull market run from 1982 to 1999, there were several pullbacks over 20%.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has only been ONE significant pullback nearing a "bear market" correction of 20% (according to the table, it was in 2011 at 19.4%).
In other words, since 2011 there has been no bear market pullback of around 20%, and therefore the probability increases of having one in the near future, perhaps post-elections or in 2017, which would confirm the cycle and pattern of the past 80+ years.
http://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf