Trump, Sanders done. Establishment picks between Cruz and Rubio

For Rubio to win the nomination, the anti estab vote needs to be split between Trump and Cruz, and also the establishment vote needs to coalesce around Rubio. That is what happened last night. And along with the party primary rules which are tilted toward establishment, bettors are betting that Rubio is back in control. Party rules; did you know that each repub state apparatus had three delegates they can give to whoever they want? That's 150 delegates for Rubio even before any votes are cast in primaries.

For anti estab to win, they need to decide on either Trump or Cruz. If they split, odds are tilted towards Rubio.
 
gwb-trading said:
Let's take a look at reality of the Republican caucus in Iowa...

Iowa is a state with many evangelicals who vote in the Republican caucus. They usually select the most evangelical, conservative candidate as the primary winner. Usually Iowa's selection never wins the Republican presidential primary. In fact, for the Republican ticket whoever they select in Iowa is basically a marker of guaranteed loss.

Let's see... who has Iowa selected in recent primaries, Huckabee and Santorum.

Bonus reading: The remarkable declines of the last two Iowa caucus winners: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum
More...


The real reality is that you are using selective statistics. If you go back more like thirty years, the odds of the iowa guy being the candidate are more like fifty fifty.
 
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:D:D:D
 
I don't know the answer to this question: Would it be illegal for a political party to tamper with the results of its own primary? It isn't a governmental election, is it?
 
Clinton camp is afraid of facing Cruz in the general - they are terrified of one-on-one debates with Clinton vs Cruz
 
Clinton will have plenty of cover which will be happily offered by the media. The only heat she'll take will be on FOX, unless she really flubs something, which is unlikely. Add in the factor that most everyone has selective hearing when listening to their favorite candidate, and the needle won't move much. The only thing that beats her in the general is a large turnout, or the extreme longshot that she gets a pair of cuffs put on her wrists.
Trump now has a visible chink in his armor. He needs to play it cool. If he starts to come off as being annoyed by the whole process, which IMO drove him to not participate in the last debate, he will continue to take heat. Cruz is still my guy, but Rubio is lining up the establishment vote. Frankly I'd be happy with either one. I'd like to see Paul and Christie do better, but it's pretty much over for them. The rest are walking dead. Time for them to lay down.
 
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