Trump, Sanders done. Establishment picks between Cruz and Rubio

C

Covertibility

First the easy part: Sanders is done. The polls were relatively accurate with a slim Clinton win. He'll win NH but the road ends there.

Semi easy part: Trump is done. His polls were overinflated and just like in France, when the crazies nominate a whacko, serious voters will come out to make sure the jackass doesn't win.

Hard Part: Who does the Establishment run with - Cruz or Rubio? Both will bring about the usual republican bullshit : War, Recession, Tax Cuts for the Rich and Big Budget Deficits but which one is competent enough to make sure a George-W-Bushlike presidency doesn't happen again.
 
Cruz won in Iowa where evangelicals are big.

New Hampshire has very few evangelicals.

Trump has a much greater projected lead in NH than he ever did in Iowa.

Trump is likely to win the primary in New Hampshire with Rubio coming in second with Cruz as a distant third.
 
Disappointing night for Trump. I'm suspect of the vote. The past 3 weeks leading up to the caucus, nearly every single poll had a Trump win by 4-10%. Then he loses by 5%. That's a shift of 10% (+5 cruz, -5 trump) in a single day. Microsoft software counted the votes.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

Anyway, Cruz is good. Cruz in the Whitehouse is still a win for America. That Rubio got 23% of the vote - horseshit. Overnight Rubio gets 8% points out of nowhere. I'm no expert but I'd like to see the historical variances of pre-polling going into the caucus and the final vote.

Either way, Trump is still heavily favored and Cruz makes an excellent supreme court justice. Another bonus - 51% of Iowans supported anti-establishment candidates. Only 23% supported a neocon
 
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Further, I'm very skeptical of the Bernie loss. Sanders had record turn-outs across the country, specifically in Iowa. Tens of thousands of people filling huge auditoriums and rinks. The Witch can barely fill a room. And she edges him out by a few votes, counted by Microsoft, one of her biggest campaign donors. Smells.
 
Predictit.org, oddschecker.com, electionbettingodds.com all did complete turnaround on the republican side after last night.

Rubio now the odds on favorite according to real money bettors. Have to keep in mind that the primary process is rigged in the republican party. Southern states which trump or cruz may win are proportional delegate states for the most part. Then other states where moderates are more abundant are winner take all delegate states. And that is only one of the ways they've rigged the primary process.
 
Let's take a look at reality of the Republican caucus in Iowa...

Iowa is a state with many evangelicals who vote in the Republican caucus. They usually select the most evangelical, conservative candidate as the primary winner. Usually Iowa's selection never wins the Republican presidential primary. In fact, for the Republican ticket whoever they select in Iowa is basically a marker of guaranteed loss.

Let's see... who has Iowa selected in recent primaries, Huckabee and Santorum.

Bonus reading: The remarkable declines of the last two Iowa caucus winners: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum
 
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