Trump Plays Dangerous Game Of Chicken With Trade Tariffs

this is the genius of trump... he knows that the fly-over states are already a lock, so the timing is good to tackle the trade imbalance.

while DIA and SPY are taking a breather, QQQ says it doesnt care... and IWM welcomes tariffs... overall, even in the short term it's not hurting much... long term probably a net plus.

times like this - all the opinions can make your head spin... but money always reveals the essence.
 
The guy did not pay his full taxes; found every excuse to get out of enlisting in the military; cheated and did not pay his business contractors; four of his businesses filed for bankruptcy; him and his family members make their products in china; three of his campaign associates pleaded guilty for laying to the FBI about their contacts with Russian intelligent operatives; He wrote a misleading letter about his dumb son contacts with a Russian lawyer; he still insists that there was no Collusion with Russia; however on the campaign trail he said this:



:sneaky::sneaky::sneaky::sneaky::sneaky:
 
dozu888 said:
again - the market knows the truth.... baltic dry index
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You sent me down a rabbit-hole here.
This is very interesting. The run in 2006 to the peaks in 2007 and 2008 was an incredible move percentage wise. 400% ish. The S&P moved up about 35%.

But this thing has barely budged since 2009. (with the S&P up 350% since then)
And it certainly hasn't portended the bull run of the last 7 years. What the hell does that mean? These markets are an illusion? A house of cards built on funny money?
Hmph. Beats me.
Where's @tommcginnis .... he'll know.

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vanzandt said:
You sent me down a rabbit-hole here.
This is very interesting. The run in 2006 to the peaks in 2007 and 2008 was an incredible move percentage wise. 400% ish. The S&P moved up about 35%.

But this thing has barely budged since 2009. (with the S&P up 350% since then)
And it certainly hasn't portended the bull run of the last 7 years. What the hell does that mean? These markets are an illusion? A house of cards built on funny money?
Hmph. Beats me.
Where's @tommcginnis .... he'll know.

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'barely budged' because of the chart scale.... yeah net movement not much, but the volatility was there.

I am not very familiar with this index, just used as a response to a mention of shipping... I discussed this with a friend in the ocean shipping biz... the industry has been going thru lots of consolidation.... and this volatility isn't too surprising if you look at it as a commodity.. (unlike the stock market with ever increasing earnings), the shipping index is basically supply demand... if rates go high, more ships come into the market... also consolidations can keep the rates low by cutting cost.
 
dozu888 said:
the shipping index is basically supply demand... if rates go high, more ships come into the market... also consolidations can keep the rates low by cutting cost.
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Here's the thing though... I don't think thats the case. It takes years to add ships. From one study:

BDI is a direct measure of the supply of dry bulk carriers versus demand for shipping capacity. The supply part of the equation, consisting of about 9000 vessels worldwide, is tight and inflexible. Unlike oil tankers, it is costly to park and idle a cargo ship, and new ships take two years to build. Because of fluctuating world and regional demand, the Index can be wildly volatile on both the upside and downside.

The Index indirectly measures global supply and demand for metallic ores, coal, grains, steel, and industrial and agricultural minerals. Because 95% of the metal mined worldwide is iron ore, the Index is dominated by this commodity. Coal (both coking and thermal) is the second most important material contributing to the Index. Copper and bauxite are other metallic ores of consequence; steel, timber, and cement are important construction materials.

So yeah, there is volatility.... perhaps obscured by the timeline scale.... but that is micro when you look at the overall movement. I mean from 2K to almost 12.5K is a hell of a move. A ten year chart of the S&P obfuscates its volatility too, but the trend has been undeniably up.
 
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watchdaride said:
come on you people still think trump will come through . Trump has american business on a sugar high but will come crashing soon .
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If you think the globalists out for themselves are going to throw you, your children and grandchildren a bone, you got a big dose of reality coming your way! Be thankful we have a US President actually, looking after the interests of majority of Americans including, those bashing him just because they hate him?
 
hayman said:
Agreed. Several large mistakes that Trump is making:

- Instead of focusing on the most important China imbalance, he's gone to war with everyone;
classic egotistical mistake in the spirit of checking off boxes;

- He is alienating our staunchest of supporters, which can only come around to bite him in
the ass in a multitude of foreign affairs;

- He's creating yet additional taxes via the tariff war, that will wipe out the additional $ 4/week
that people are getting in their paychecks (not the case in NY, where we got a tax increase,
btw, when loss of RE and state tax deductions are taken into consideration);

- I have several family members who are farmers, who voted for him. Every last one of them
being hurt by foreign country import taxes, and they are all pledging to vote against him and
his party in November and beyond;

Very high risk measures, with low reward expectations. I would never bet on a guy who doesn't understand economics, and runs to bankruptcy court every time a deal turns against him.
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Let us state the facts instead of trying to cover them. It is not only China taking advantage of the US, actually, includes the European Union, Canada, Mexico, South, Korea and Japan! Are they our allies? Of course, they are! However, we either fix the problem now, or continue kicking down the can down the road. We have an $18 trillion deficit and we have to do it now, for the futures of your children and grandchildren or are you just so damn ignorant you cannot figure that one out? Farmers being hurt can easily, be made whole by the tariffs imposed and collected by the US. That would nullify tariffs on US products. Since, these countries have huge surpluses on the US, any trade war will result in the US winning by collecting more tariffs! This is not rocket science. Subsidies just need to be provided to the industries affected until fair trade deals can be ironed out! Once, fair trade deals are signed, everyone would sign on as well because they have a lot more to lose!
 
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