so you conveniently pick a stat that is supposed to decrease deeper into a recovery. and conveniently used a short term oil fluctuation for a long term argument.
I think you do exactly the same: use what is convinient for you. But that is not difficult, there is so much data that any theory can find proof in it. It's the pot and the kettle...
I could argue that with Trump NFP could have been higher if he started in 2008. and with Obama the oil price could be even higher today without the additional drilling and pipelines.... and my arguments are logical.. regulation cuts, tax cuts help the economy, additional drilling helps the oil supply..... Obama's regulation strangle holds and healthcare mandates hurt the economy.
WIth all kinds of hypothetical arguments you can also proof anything.
Compare it with hindsight in trading. With IF and COULD we all would be the best trader in the world.