Trump Is Long Gamma

[AAAintheBeltway]

Trump pushed his large stack into the center of the table and calmly said "All in" with his exclude all muslims proposal. Another terrorist attack, with cries of allah achbar and dead americans, and he will be raking in the pot and sending the other candidates home broke.

In trading terms, he is extremely long gamma, and he has forced the others into a risky short gamma position. Like any such trade, the odds are against him but his was a longshot candidacy from the beginning. And like any such trade, the potential payoff is enormous.

In a rational world, the terrorists would hunker down and play the odds that Hillary will win. She isn't their wetdream president like obama has been, but she might be close. Her closest advisor is muslim-brotherhood connected Huma Abedin, aka Mrs. Carlos Danger.

But ISIS in particular seems to be playing a different game. Hunkering down and sneaking in a bunch of terrorists among the refugee flood would also seem like a good plan, but we had the Paris attack and now San Bernadino.

Trump's in your face proposal may have so affronted them that they will feel the need to respond, thereby playing right into his hands. Game theory, anyone?

 

[achilles28]

I won't pretend to understand gamma. I will say the option trump bought is also very long theta. Time. He's got 12 months for another high profile attack to occur in America or Europe and he seals the deal. Those are good odds considering lone wolf attAcks are the norm now.

I think your analysis is right. Isis is best served by laying low now until after the elections. I doubt this will happen. It's trumps election to lose.

 

[377OHMS]

Seems to me that Cruz is showing some brainpower. He is drafting Trump and not falling into the trap.

He might make a good veep.

 

[Max E.]

I agree with this wholeheartedly, he knows exactly what hes doing, and hes definitely all in, and so far hes beating the living piss out of the mainstream media, which is something i like, but IMO you still have to hold him accountable just like you would any other politician when he says things that are highly irrational, no matter how much you want to side with him against piss ants in the msm like cuomo, or carol costello.

Trump pushed his large stack into the center of the table and calmly said "All in" with his exclude all muslims proposal. Another terrorist attack, with cries of allah achbar and dead americans, and he will be raking in the pot and sending the other candidates home broke.

In trading terms, he is extremely long gamma, and he has forced the others into a risky short gamma position. Like any such trade, the odds are against him but his was a longshot candidacy from the beginning. And like any such trade, the potential payoff is enormous.

In a rational world, the terrorists would hunker down and play the odds that Hillary will win. She isn't their wetdream president like obama has been, but she might be close. Her closest advisor is muslim-brotherhood connected Huma Abedin, aka Mrs. Carlos Danger.

But ISIS in particular seems to be playing a different game. Hunkering down and sneaking in a bunch of terrorists among the refugee flood would also seem like a good plan, but we had the Paris attack and now San Bernadino.

Trump's in your face proposal may have so affronted them that they will feel the need to respond, thereby playing right into his hands. Game theory, anyone?

 

[ElCubano]

The best part is he went all in with a 7/2 offsuit papa.

 

[jem]

The table has been supporting that play.

its like Bratt (no amnesty and rule of law campaign) was Gus Hansen and Trump was the first guy to realize that style could work for him too.


The rule of law style is likely to dominate the next few years... until all the establishment guys start parroting it... and actually passing a few pro american jobs rule of law type immigration policies.

Whether the morons on the left realize it or not... Trump's position appeals to people with families, legal immigrants, union people and 90% of republicans who don't want to see the democrats and the establishment anti patriots rule and roll over us.

 

[Ricter]

The best part is he went all in with a 7/2 offsuit papa.

He may find himself playing UTG soon.

 

[achilles28]

Good posts!

Max, agreed. I'm watching trump closely.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I agree with this wholeheartedly, he knows exactly what hes doing, and hes definitely all in, and so far hes beating the living piss out of the mainstream media, which is something i like, but IMO you still have to hold him accountable just like you would any other politician when he says things that are highly irrational, no matter how much you want to side with him against piss ants in the msm like cuomo, or carol costello.

Rush made a point about Trump and I think he's right. Trump's supporters realize there is a certain amount of bombast in his pronouncements, likely put there to drive the media insane.

 

[Max E.]

Rush made a point about Trump and I think he's right. Trump's supporters realize there is a certain amount of bombast in his pronouncements, likely put there to drive the media insane.

Yeah pretty typical newyork realestate salesmen, just exaggerations, everything is going to be the biggest deal in history.