Trump Increasing Tariffs to 25 %
- Thread starter Stockolio
- Start date
Source ?
There is a causation between big mouth and small pocket
WSJ, FT, since Asian morning hours ....but as can be seen with China indexes and HSI, every time a Chinese blogger hears another rumor of the trade delegation still going but without Liu He or not going at all, markets trip all over themselves.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global...remier-liu-he-likely-delay-us-trip-three-days
It seems China is cancelling for now... If they were supposed to arrive Wednesday in DC, and delay it by few days, means they would arrive after Friday, which is when Donny claims 25 % increase. He could walk back, but this one seems like one he won't... He actually wants that, I believe he wants to start the global recession now rather than later this year, the quicker rates get dropped, and Fed pumps US economy, the better for him. If Credit Markets snap in end 2019, stimulus by Fed won't arrive in time for re election and he will be booted... If he starts it now and Fed stimulates by September-October, recovery might start to happen towards end 2020, somewhat. I doubt it will, but it's Trumps only shot at survival
Interesting moves
It seems China is cancelling for now... If they were supposed to arrive Wednesday in DC, and delay it by few days, means they would arrive after Friday, which is when Donny claims 25 % increase. He could walk back, but this one seems like one he won't... He actually wants that, I believe he wants to start the global recession now rather than later this year, the quicker rates get dropped, and Fed pumps US economy, the better for him. If Credit Markets snap in end 2019, stimulus by Fed won't arrive in time for re election and he will be booted... If he starts it now and Fed stimulates by September-October, recovery might start to happen towards end 2020, somewhat. I doubt it will, but it's Trumps only shot at survival
Interesting moves
Told you
Re Fed, rate drops are all but circulated by conspiracy theorists. Rates are very low there is zero reason Fed will drop rates unless the US fell into another recession. Nothing in the market currently points to this happening right now. It might but most likely not. Keyword: probabilities
Edit : agree with @SteveM, a few rate drops till zero will have almost zero effect on the economy. There is very little room for maneuver for the Fed should the economy decline from here.
Re Fed, rate drops are all but circulated by conspiracy theorists. Rates are very low there is zero reason Fed will drop rates unless the US fell into another recession. Nothing in the market currently points to this happening right now. It might but most likely not. Keyword: probabilities
Edit : agree with @SteveM, a few rate drops till zero will have almost zero effect on the economy. There is very little room for maneuver for the Fed should the economy decline from here.
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I respectfully disagree with your thesis....if Trump's policies drive the Chinese economy into a tailspin, there is a real possibility it could set off the dominoes in global credit market and majorly impact all economies.
Under such a scenario, a half-point rate cut from the Fed won't do jack to save the markets. Just my opinion.
Interbank is already destroyed, nasty things were happening below the surface already, with or without this... Default Waves are happening and would continue to happen tariffs or no tariffs... This will become a market crisis if he puts 25 % tariffs Friday, on top of global recession already in real economy happening. Like a wise man once said, equities and stocks are like a water tap, credit markets are like a light switch, it's either on or off. They were already flashing red, now it's a wrap.
Pension Funds drive US Markets, when Algo's go off it's a correction I guess... When people want their money back and Pension Funds pull out, it's a crisis. Biggest Fish by far are Pension Funds, with states increasing taxes to feed shortfalls, those extra taxes going into markets as well... Very low interest rates and Pension Funds created US Bubble, they will pull out but when they jump back in, with ZIRP and QE, US Markets will fly. Offshore money will flow like crazy, world economies will still be wrecked, but US markets might be on track again by next Election due to inflow of money US Markets receive, if he gets ahead of this now... With markets back to normal, he will claim economic recovery. It's his only play, he is running with it