Trump has 91% chance of winning second term

Mercor · Jul 13, 2020

At some point between now and November 3 this will tighten
Pretty good trade

Next President

57.8%

37.9%

Bugenhagen · Jul 13, 2020

Millionaire said:
There has been no major uptick in deaths. All these new cases could therefore be put down to increased testing.
The market has realised this and that is why it has rallied in the last three weeks even in the face of many more cases.

Takes a month or so for the deaths to rise though low hanging fruit of eldey are somewhat more shielded now (those still alive). The new cases are substantially down to new cases.

I know bias is blinding but hard to believe you make 200k a year.

Millionaire · Jul 13, 2020

Average time to death for those unfortunate to get a bad case is 18 days.

The breakout in the case chart occurred on June 19th. So 24 days ago.

We should of seen an uptick by now, but ok lets wait another week, there should definitely be a major uptick in deaths by the end of this week then.

Bugenhagen · Jul 13, 2020

Millionaire said:
Average time to death for those unfortunate to get a bad case is 18 days.

The breakout in the case chart occurred on June 19th. So 24 days ago.

We should of seen an uptick by now, but ok lets wait another week, there should definitely be a major uptick in deaths by the end of this week then.

Look at past cycles and look at other countries because as I have to point out, only 4.25 percent or so of the population is America. Yes new drugs, better isolation of the at risk will help as will improved therapies but the virus has not attenuated to less lethal than it was it seems . The more infectious strain has taken over but it is not more deadly.

In the region I live in Colombia they are re-applying the brakes again as ICUs are reaching capacity following the phased reopening about six weeks ago. Back to food shopping one day a week from every second.

A lot of the numbers here are younger people being infected of course and the strategy to curve flatten is largely working, lockdown was never about eliminating the virus because unless an island or close, that is pretty much impossible.

This whole think should not be in the realm of politics at all and is not especially so in tbe majority of nations.

Nine_Ender · Jul 13, 2020

Millionaire said:
There has been no major uptick in deaths. All these new cases could therefore be put down to increased testing.
The market has realised this and that is why it has rallied in the last three weeks even in the face of many more cases.

Florida deaths this last week are around double what they were a month ago. That is a major uptick. Furthermore, it runs counter to the trend in Canada, NY etc where deaths have dropped considerably. Lastly, the 8000-15000 new infections or any current actions taken will not register at all for 3-4 weeks on the death count.

Denying what is happening will not solve the problem. Awareness and behavior of the public is a huge part of the solution.

Tsing Tao · Jul 13, 2020

Nine_Ender said:
Florida deaths this last week are around double what they were a month ago. That is a major uptick. Furthermore, it runs counter to the trend in Canada, NY etc where deaths have dropped considerably. Lastly, the 8000-15000 new infections or any current actions taken will not register at all for 3-4 weeks on the death count.

Testing is not the reason the infection rates spiked in a huge way. If you pro rate the level of testing in other areas of the world like Canada the infection rates in several US states should be lower by a factor of a least 8-10.

If you're talking specifically about Florida, testing is absolutely one of the main drivers on why the numbers spiked over the weekend. I made quite a detailed post on this, but the % of positive tests actually declined. Testing increased by somewhere around 25k per day more than the prior week. Check the DeSantis thread.

piezoe · Jul 13, 2020

Millionaire said:
Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ction-2020-joe-biden-poll-model-a9609236.html

WoW! Those are GREAT ODDS. It wouldn't be wise to put your entire million on Trump, but how about 500K long on Trump! I mean 91%! opportunities like this don't come around every day. I say, go for it. Las Vegas will be happy to take your bet.

Millionaire · Jul 13, 2020

piezoe said:
WoW! Those are GREAT ODDS. It wouldn't be wise to put your entire million on Trump, but how about 500K long on Trump! I mean 91%! opportunities like this don't come around every day. I say, go for it. Las Vegas will be happy to take your bet.

Wait for better odds. You could 10:1 return at one point in the Hilary vs Trump race.