Trump has 91% chance of winning second term

Tony Stark said:
No president has won re election with a disapproval rating higher than approval rating.That has a 100 accuracy rate since approval ratings began in the 1930s
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The next poll I quote will be the one on Nov 3. Thank you for your time.
 
91% chance? Uh, no. Not in this reality, anyway. Though I have wondered in the course of the last few months if I had accidentally woken up March 1st in an alternate reality beyond the one I was born and grew up in. Things I would have never dreamed remotely likely back then are now reality. So who knows? I'm not a good judge of what is possible anymore.
 
Millionaire said:
Worked in back testing from 1912 to 1992.

Then worked in forward testing as well.

High probability indicator, over 90% accuracy., I wish i had a trading indicator this good :D
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There are plenty of trading indicators the inventors can show are that good once they have made them fit the data. :)

But markets change.
 
Clubber Lang said:
As much as I would like to believe he is right, let’s be honest here, 25 out of 27 elections in backtesting sounds great but really only maybe 4-5 of the 27 elections weren’t blatantly obvious who was going to win before hand.
So his model is no better than a coin flip on the hotly contested elections.
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That was my point with my joke :)
 
For all of you that hate Trump there is a an equal group that hates Biden.

The mask issue shows a huge divide in medical beliefs along party lines.

COVID revealed people are truly split. Pelosi did call out people to come outside in February and nothing to fear but she stopped that when shit got real. Trump never stopped double downing on his fucktardedness with HCQ, Bleach, UV light, forcing Governor's to do his bidding, lying over testing, demanding CDC change their message when it did not agree with him etc.. Despite that, many still worship him.

Biden's stumbles means undecided voters still are..undecided.

There is nothing about 2020 that is a slam dunk except the fact that every channel on TV and cable better skip their Year in Review specials in December... no one wants to fucking hear it.
 
Only 9 of the 45 presidents have failed to win re-election. Don’t underestimate Trump’s chances.

Yes, he’s a shitty president. Yes, the country is in the shitter. But people do not like to change leadership.
 
UsualName said:
Only 9 of the 45 presidents have failed to win re-election. Don’t underestimate Trump’s chances.

Yes, he’s a shitty president. Yes, the country is in the shitter. But people do not like to change leadership.
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I'm pretty confident all sorts of statistical rules are out the window this election.
 
UsualName said:
Yes, he’s a shitty president. Yes, the country is in the shitter. But people do not like to change leadership.
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Plus the Dems didn't manage to find a good alternative. Biden is shittier than Trump.

Now if they had found some one younger with presidential charisma like Bill Clinton or Obama in their prime.

Then even i would say Trump doesn't stand much chance.

But they have chosen a senile old fart, well past his prime.
 
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Millionaire said:
Plus the Dems didn't manage to find a good alternative. Biden is shittier than Trump.

Now if they had found some one younger with presidential charisma like Bill Clinton or Obama in their prime.

Then even i would say Trump doesn't stand much chance.

But they have chosen a senile old fart, well past his prime.
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Why do you think there's such a pandemic push? Can't have Biden debating in the open. That won't work.
 
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