Trump has 91% chance of winning second term

[Millionaire]

Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.


Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ction-2020-joe-biden-poll-model-a9609236.html

 

[smallfil]

ET trolls probably, gnashing their teeth. What more bogus polls or surveys are they going to make up? Not that it changes anything. Go, wake up Joe Biden from his basement and tell him the great news. Great news is he can go back to sleep. We will wake him up on November 4, 2020. He will be well rested by then.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Wow predicted 5 out of 6 elections......

So he predicted Clinton would win reelection in 1996 GENIUS

Predicted Obama would beat Mcain-Pailin in 2008 and then win again in 2016? What wizardry is this?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Wow predicted 5 out of 6 elections......

So he predicted Clinton would win reelection in 1996 GENIUS

Predicted Obama would beat Mcain-Pailin in 2008 and then win again in 2016? What wizardry is this?

Which did he get wrong 2000 or 2016...

wasn't aware that Obama won again in 2016

 

[Cuddles]

What wizardry is this?

COPE
O
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&

 

[Millionaire]

Wow predicted 5 out of 6 elections......

So he predicted Clinton would win reelection in 1996 GENIUS

Predicted Obama would beat Mcain-Pailin in 2008 and then win again in 2016? What wizardry is this?

Worked in back testing from 1912 to 1992.

Then worked in forward testing as well.

High probability indicator, over 90% accuracy., I wish i had a trading indicator this good

 

[Tony Stark]

No president has won re election with a disapproval rating higher than approval rating.That has a 100 accuracy rate since approval ratings began in the 1930s

 

[Clubber Lang]

As much as I would like to believe he is right, let’s be honest here, 25 out of 27 elections in backtesting sounds great but really only maybe 4-5 of the 27 elections weren’t blatantly obvious who was going to win before hand.
So his model is no better than a coin flip on the hotly contested elections.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

No president has won re election with a disapproval rating higher than approval rating.That has a 100 accuracy rate since approval ratings began in the 1930s

That is---when the approval ratings are correctly surveyed.

 

[Tony Stark]

That is---when the approval ratings are correctly surveyed.

Use Gallup.They started the approval ratings in the 1930s and never has a president won re election when his disapproval was higher than his approval Gallup polling.


Trump has never had a 50% approval rating in Gallup or aggregate polling and his current approval/disapproval is around negative 15 in both