Trump and Emerging Demographics

O

oldnemesis

As the potential demographics for the election emerge it is becoming clear to me that Trump has talked himself into something of a hole.

1. There will be more Hispanics than ever voting this November:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...rate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/

2. Women continue to find Trump 'troubling'... even republican women:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/us/politics/donald-trump-gop-women.html

3. If you tally up the demographics that have built a bias against Trump:
Out of a total electorate of 215081 Trump has developed a negative bias among:
.....a) White women 152862/2 = 76431
.....b) Hispanics.........................23329
.....c) Blacks..............................25753

Thus the percentage of people who, simply based on demographics, have a negative bias against trump = 125513/215081 = 58.4%.

There's a cost to pissing everybody off.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...on-opens-double-digit-lead-over-trump-n625676
 
Speaking of demographics, there's a huge demographic out there that isn't being counted. It is a demographic that never gets polled, ever. This group is 60,000,000+ in size. What group is this? The rarely or never vote group. All polls are of likely voters. This group is never included.
Who will inspire a portion of this group to do something they rarely or never do? Hillary? Laughable. She represents exactly why they don't participate. Bernie? Yes, but he sold out. Trump? Yes, and this is why he will win the popular vote. He will also lose the election because the electoral count will prevail, and he's going to lose that. Yeah, you read it here first. I'm calling it.
Now how can your humble Captain make such a call, make it in mid august? Lets take the previous election. Obama won nearly 66 million votes, Romney 61 million. This was considered a significant margin of victory by modern standards. 5 million people. That number is less than 10% of this huge demographic that doesn't vote. If Trump can inspire just one in ten of this block to get off the couch, he wins the popular vote. ONE IN TEN.
Trump will win the popular votes hands down. He will lose the election. This will allow him to stand in front of the cameras the day after the election and say, see, I told you so. It's a rigged game.
 
CaptainObvious said:
Trump will win the popular votes hands down.
More...
I don't think he will. He only does well with his orange Kool-Aid echo chamber base:

upload_2016-8-11_11-58-33.jpeg


Let's compare notes the day after the election.
 
CaptainObvious said:
Speaking of demographics, there's a huge demographic out there that isn't being counted. It is a demographic that never gets polled, ever. This group is 60,000,000+ in size. What group is this? The rarely or never vote group. All polls are of likely voters. This group is never included.
Who will inspire a portion of this group to do something they rarely or never do? Hillary? Laughable. She represents exactly why they don't participate. Bernie? Yes, but he sold out. Trump? Yes, and this is why he will win the popular vote. He will also lose the election because the electoral count will prevail, and he's going to lose that. Yeah, you read it here first. I'm calling it.
Now how can your humble Captain make such a call, make it in mid august? Lets take the previous election. Obama won nearly 66 million votes, Romney 61 million. This was considered a significant margin of victory by modern standards. 5 million people. That number is less than 10% of this huge demographic that doesn't vote. If Trump can inspire just one in ten of this block to get off the couch, he wins the popular vote. ONE IN TEN.
Trump will win the popular votes hands down. He will lose the election. This will allow him to stand in front of the cameras the day after the election and say, see, I told you so. It's a rigged game.
More...
interesting remark. Please remind us of this after the election. Let's see then how prescient your remarks were.
 
As the potential demographics for the election emerge it is becoming clear to me that Trump has talked himself into something of a hole.

1. There will be more Hispanics than ever voting this November:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...rate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/

2. Women continue to find Trump 'troubling'... even republican women:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/us/politics/donald-trump-gop-women.html

3. If you tally up the demographics that have built a bias against Trump:
Out of a total electorate of 215081 Trump has developed a negative bias among:
.....a) White women 152862/2 = 76431
.....b) Hispanics.........................23329
.....c) Blacks..............................25753

Thus the percentage of people who, simply based on demographics, have a negative bias against trump = 125513/215081 = 58.4%.

There's a cost to pissing everybody off.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...on-opens-double-digit-lead-over-trump-n625676
 
Speaking of demographics, there's a huge demographic out there that isn't being counted. It is a demographic that never gets polled, ever. This group is 60,000,000+ in size. What group is this? The rarely or never vote group. All polls are of likely voters. This group is never included.
Who will inspire a portion of this group to do something they rarely or never do? Hillary? Laughable. She represents exactly why they don't participate. Bernie? Yes, but he sold out. Trump? Yes, and this is why he will win the popular vote. He will also lose the election because the electoral count will prevail, and he's going to lose that. Yeah, you read it here first. I'm calling it.
Now how can your humble Captain make such a call, make it in mid august? Lets take the previous election. Obama won nearly 66 million votes, Romney 61 million. This was considered a significant margin of victory by modern standards. 5 million people. That number is less than 10% of this huge demographic that doesn't vote. If Trump can inspire just one in ten of this block to get off the couch, he wins the popular vote. ONE IN TEN.
Trump will win the popular votes hands down. He will lose the election. This will allow him to stand in front of the cameras the day after the election and say, see, I told you so. It's a rigged game.
 
CaptainObvious said:
Speaking of demographics, there's a huge demographic out there that isn't being counted. It is a demographic that never gets polled, ever. This group is 60,000,000+ in size. What group is this? The rarely or never vote group. All polls are of likely voters. This group is never included.
Who will inspire a portion of this group to do something they rarely or never do? Hillary? Laughable. She represents exactly why they don't participate. Bernie? Yes, but he sold out. Trump? Yes, and this is why he will win the popular vote. He will also lose the election because the electoral count will prevail, and he's going to lose that. Yeah, you read it here first. I'm calling it.
Now how can your humble Captain make such a call, make it in mid august? Lets take the previous election. Obama won nearly 66 million votes, Romney 61 million. This was considered a significant margin of victory by modern standards. 5 million people. That number is less than 10% of this huge demographic that doesn't vote. If Trump can inspire just one in ten of this block to get off the couch, he wins the popular vote. ONE IN TEN.
Trump will win the popular votes hands down. He will lose the election. This will allow him to stand in front of the cameras the day after the election and say, see, I told you so. It's a rigged game.
More...
interesting remark. Please remind us of this after the election. Let's see then how prescient your remarks were.
 
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