We will find out in November. Do not underestimate Trump ability to drive people to polls to vote against him.
Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.Trump won The GOP primary easier in 2024 than he did in 2016.His support is steady and grows.
Biden won in 2020 because he had support from progressive and black voters that Hillary did not have after making a ton of progressive promises to progressive and black voters such as police reform,medicaid option for all,free state college,student loan forgiveness,immigration reform,higher taxes on the rich and corporations,15.00 minimum wage,no oil drilling,an abortion rights federal law,legal marijuana,criminal justice reform etc.
Biden has not kept any of these promises and his overall approval rating has gone from +23 in 2021 to -19 today and his approval with blacks has gone from around 90% to the 40s.Progressive and black voters that voted for him in 2020 will not be voting for him in 2024 just as they didn't vote for Gore in 2000 or Hillary in 2016,and progressive and blacks hate Biden far more than they did Hillary and Gore.Im a former lifetime democrat voter that voted for, donated to and volunteered for Obama in 2008,2012,Hilary in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and I have never voted for a republican in my life.I will be voting Trump in November because I hate Biden. Millions of other progressives and blacks that voted for Biden in 2020 will do the same or stay home or vote for The Green Party /Cornel West.
Trump will have the same support that he has always had or more which won him 2016 and only lost The EC by 42,000 votes in 2020.Millions of people who voted for Biden in 2020 will not be voting for him in 2024.