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Donald Trump has a big problem ahead
Sam Stein and Natalie Allison
Tue, January 23, 2024 at 11:00 AM GMT+1·6 min read
Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday night: There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee.
It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And it’s a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire.
“I can’t vote for Trump. He’s a crook. He’s too corrupt,” said Scott Simeone, 64, an independent voter from Amherst, who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. “I voted for him, and I didn’t realize he’s as corrupt as he is.”
Primary elections can create intra-party divisions that, in the moment, seem impossible to heal. In 2008, a bloc of Hillary Clinton supporters started the PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) movement as a threat to never back Barack Obama after that bruising primary. Bernie Sanders’ supporters vowed to never support Clinton eight years later. In 2016, Trump himself faced pushback to his nomination all the way up to the convention floor.
But 2024 is different. Trump is not making his pitch to voters as a first time candidate. He is a known quantity who is being judged by the electorate not for the conduct of his current campaign so much as his time in office. And that, political veterans warn, makes it much harder for him to win back the people he’s alienated, including those once willing to vote Republican.
The data supports the idea that there are problems ahead for the former president. Even before the Iowa survey, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that — including independents who say they lean toward one party over the other — Biden had slightly more support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91 percent) than Trump did among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent).
That’s far from a majority of Republicans preparing to pass on Trump in November. But in a close election, it could be enough to tip the scales for Democrats. At a minimum, it is a major liability for the GOP should the party, as expected, push Trump through as its nominee.
"It would be a massively difficult hill to climb, without a doubt,” New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Haley endorser, told reporters of the party’s chances of winning New Hampshire in the general election with Trump on top of the ticket, when asked by POLITICO. “And he's already proven that. He's lost before and according to the polls he will lose even bigger this time."
Sean Van Anglen, a prominent and early Trump supporter in the state who now plans to vote for Haley on Tuesday, said if Trump becomes the nominee, he might have to blank that line on his November ballot.
“I don’t think I can vote for Trump,” he said. “I vote in every election, I’ve never left a box blank. And I might have to this time.”
That sentiment was not uncommon among Republicans here this week, especially among voters who came out to see Haley, the former U.N. ambassador.
“I liked him. But he just scares me now. Everybody that has ever worked for him is not any more,” said Lisa Tracy, of Salem. If it came down to Biden versus Trump, she said, “I would go with Biden.”
These problems are not entirely unique to Republicans. Biden himself is grappling with a Democratic Party where a portion of voters have soured on him and are either leaning towards or threatening to vote for a third party candidate or stay home in November.
“We need to keep showing that it can’t just be two parties that no one fully agrees with,” said Michelle Greene, a 34-year-old registered independent from Portsmouth, New Hampshire, who saw Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who is challenging the president in a primary, in Hampton on Sunday.
Greene said it’s “definitely a concern” that a third-party candidate might siphon off votes from Biden in November. But she also wasn’t sure if she’d vote for Biden again, after backing him in 2020, in a head-to-head Biden-Trump rematch, adding that she “morally can’t support the lesser of two evils.”
How big a universe these groups of disaffected voters are could go a long way in determining the next president. But there are signs that, among independents at least, Trump is bleeding.
In the New York Times/Siena College poll last month, Biden led Trump among all independents in the poll, 50 percent to 38 percent.
At a brief press scrum on Saturday before Trump took the stage at a rally, the former president's top adviser Chris LaCivita downplayed the numbers out of Iowa. A campaign spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
But at events across the Granite state over the past week, surrogates for Trump have stressed the need for Republican reconciliation, depicting Biden’s presidency as an existential threat.
Sununu, for his part, said he was ready to back Trump should he end up being the party’s standard-bearer. While Biden is a "decent person,” Sununu said, “his team is so bad."
But what was notable about his argument was that it was delivered under duress. Sununu was speaking to a voter who had cornered him while he wiped snow from his car in a parking lot outside a Haley rally. That voter had wanted to know how he could possibly turn around and cast a vote for Trump after being so openly critical of his governance. Others who attended the event agreed.
Curtis Thornbrugh, 81, an independent from Rindge, had voted for Barry Goldwater, Bob Dole, and both Bushes before casting his ballot for Obama twice and Biden in 2020 (he did not say how he voted in 2016). He was open to backing Haley in 2024 but couldn’t see himself supporting Trump.
“I can’t find anything good to say and I try,” he explained. “He’s dangerous and the people around him are, too.”
Forbes Farmer, 79, a fellow independent from Rindge, also went to view Haley in person at that event. He said he’d lean towards supporting her if she ran against Biden in November.
Could he back Trump should he prevail?
“No, never,” Farmer said. “I absolutely hate Trump.”
Trump 2024
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‘Good One, Donald’: Biden Trolls Trump With Blunt Reminder Of His Worst Prediction
‘Good One, Donald’: Biden Trolls Trump With Blunt Reminder Of His Worst Prediction
their parents were siblings
their grandparents as well
...
"usual" magatards
low creatures
white trash
crap
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https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/...trump-new-hampshire-victory-speech/index.html
Fact check: Trump makes false claims in New Hampshire victory speech
By Daniel Dale, CNN
4 minute read
Updated 12:10 AM EST, Wed January 24, 2024
Former President Donald Trump made several false claims in a speech Tuesday night after CNN and other media outlets projected that he would win the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
CNN also watched rival candidate Nikki Haley’s Tuesday night speech in New Hampshire; Haley’s claims were either accurate or too general to fact check. Here is a fact check of some of Trump’s assertions.
The 2020 election
Trump repeated some of his familiar lies about the 2020 presidential election.
At one point, he claimed, as he has repeatedly in the past, that “they used Covid to cheat.” At another point, he claimed that in addition to winning in 2016, “we also won in 2020 – by more. And we did much better in 2020 than we did in 2016.” He dismissively said, “But as they said, we lost by a whisker.”
Facts First: Trump’s claims are false. He lost the 2020 election fair and square to Joe Biden, by a 306 to 232 margin in the Electoral College, and also lost New Hampshire in that election. There remains no evidence of any fraud even close to widespread enough to have changed the outcome in any state.
Democrats and taxes
Trump Tuesday night said, “Do they hate our country? They must hate our country. Because there’s no other reason that they can be doing the things they do. Take a look – the taxes, they want to raise your taxes times four.”
Facts First: This is false. Neither Biden nor other top Democrats are proposing anything close to quadrupling people’s taxes.
CNN previously fact-checked a similar Trump claim that “they want to double, triple everything.”
Howard Gleckman, senior fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute think tank, said in a November email: “I don’t know what ‘they want to double, triple everything’ means. But if he’s suggesting that Biden would ‘double, triple’ federal income taxes, he’s just making up numbers. There is no evidence to support that claim.”
Gleckman said his organization’s analysis of Biden’s budget proposal for fiscal 2024, which included his most recent tax plan, found that the major tax provisions would “would raise taxes by an average of $2,290, or reduce taxable income by 2.3 percent.”
General elections in New Hampshire
Trump claimed that he has always won the state – not only in Republican primaries but in general elections.
“You know we won New Hampshire three times now three. We win it every time. We win the primary. We win the generals. We won it and it’s a very, very special place to me.” Trump said.
Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. He lost New Hampshire to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election and to Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 general election, though he did win the Republican primary each time.
Primary voters
Criticizing Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a supporter of Haley, Trump said that because of Sununu’s incompetence, “in the Republican primary, they accepted Democrats to vote. In fact, I think they had 4,000 Democrats – Democrats before October 6 – they already voted. Now, they’re only voting because they want to make me look as bad as possible.”
Facts First: Trump’s claims are misleading at best. People registered as Democrats were not allowed to vote in New Hampshire’s Republican primary. Only registered Republicans and independents (people registered as “undeclared”) were allowed to cast ballots in that primary. While it’s true that nearly 4,000 people who had been registered as Democrats switched their affiliation to either undeclared or Republican by October 6, the last day to switch in time to potentially cast a ballot in the GOP primary, it’s not yet clear how many of these people actually ended up voting. And it’s important to note that New Hampshire made its primaries open to independentsdecades before Sununu became governor in 2017.
Also, while Trump was complaining about people formerly registered as Democrats being permitted to vote in the Republican primary, it is standard for states to allow people to switch affiliations by a certain date in order to participate in another party’s primary – and some states have switching deadlines closer to an election day than New Hampshire does. In Trump’s state of Florida, to name one, voters can switch from Democratic to Republican by February 20 and cast a ballot in the Republican primary in the early voting window that begins less than three weeks later or in person a month later on the March 19 election day. (Unlike in New Hampshire, independents can’t cast Republican primary ballots there.)
Finally, the motivations of the recent New Hampshire affiliation-switchers are not nearly as clear as Trump suggested. While some might have indeed switched with the sole intention of opposing him, some others might have sincerely decided that they no longer saw themselves as Democrats. There was all kinds of affiliation-switching before October 6. For example, the New Hampshire Bulletin reported that 719 people switched from Republican to undeclared and 132 people switched from undeclared to Republican.
Fact check: Trump makes false claims in New Hampshire victory speech
By Daniel Dale, CNN
4 minute read
Updated 12:10 AM EST, Wed January 24, 2024
Former President Donald Trump made several false claims in a speech Tuesday night after CNN and other media outlets projected that he would win the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
CNN also watched rival candidate Nikki Haley’s Tuesday night speech in New Hampshire; Haley’s claims were either accurate or too general to fact check. Here is a fact check of some of Trump’s assertions.
The 2020 election
Trump repeated some of his familiar lies about the 2020 presidential election.
At one point, he claimed, as he has repeatedly in the past, that “they used Covid to cheat.” At another point, he claimed that in addition to winning in 2016, “we also won in 2020 – by more. And we did much better in 2020 than we did in 2016.” He dismissively said, “But as they said, we lost by a whisker.”
Facts First: Trump’s claims are false. He lost the 2020 election fair and square to Joe Biden, by a 306 to 232 margin in the Electoral College, and also lost New Hampshire in that election. There remains no evidence of any fraud even close to widespread enough to have changed the outcome in any state.
Democrats and taxes
Trump Tuesday night said, “Do they hate our country? They must hate our country. Because there’s no other reason that they can be doing the things they do. Take a look – the taxes, they want to raise your taxes times four.”
Facts First: This is false. Neither Biden nor other top Democrats are proposing anything close to quadrupling people’s taxes.
CNN previously fact-checked a similar Trump claim that “they want to double, triple everything.”
Howard Gleckman, senior fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute think tank, said in a November email: “I don’t know what ‘they want to double, triple everything’ means. But if he’s suggesting that Biden would ‘double, triple’ federal income taxes, he’s just making up numbers. There is no evidence to support that claim.”
Gleckman said his organization’s analysis of Biden’s budget proposal for fiscal 2024, which included his most recent tax plan, found that the major tax provisions would “would raise taxes by an average of $2,290, or reduce taxable income by 2.3 percent.”
General elections in New Hampshire
Trump claimed that he has always won the state – not only in Republican primaries but in general elections.
“You know we won New Hampshire three times now three. We win it every time. We win the primary. We win the generals. We won it and it’s a very, very special place to me.” Trump said.
Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. He lost New Hampshire to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election and to Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 general election, though he did win the Republican primary each time.
Primary voters
Criticizing Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a supporter of Haley, Trump said that because of Sununu’s incompetence, “in the Republican primary, they accepted Democrats to vote. In fact, I think they had 4,000 Democrats – Democrats before October 6 – they already voted. Now, they’re only voting because they want to make me look as bad as possible.”
Facts First: Trump’s claims are misleading at best. People registered as Democrats were not allowed to vote in New Hampshire’s Republican primary. Only registered Republicans and independents (people registered as “undeclared”) were allowed to cast ballots in that primary. While it’s true that nearly 4,000 people who had been registered as Democrats switched their affiliation to either undeclared or Republican by October 6, the last day to switch in time to potentially cast a ballot in the GOP primary, it’s not yet clear how many of these people actually ended up voting. And it’s important to note that New Hampshire made its primaries open to independentsdecades before Sununu became governor in 2017.
Also, while Trump was complaining about people formerly registered as Democrats being permitted to vote in the Republican primary, it is standard for states to allow people to switch affiliations by a certain date in order to participate in another party’s primary – and some states have switching deadlines closer to an election day than New Hampshire does. In Trump’s state of Florida, to name one, voters can switch from Democratic to Republican by February 20 and cast a ballot in the Republican primary in the early voting window that begins less than three weeks later or in person a month later on the March 19 election day. (Unlike in New Hampshire, independents can’t cast Republican primary ballots there.)
Finally, the motivations of the recent New Hampshire affiliation-switchers are not nearly as clear as Trump suggested. While some might have indeed switched with the sole intention of opposing him, some others might have sincerely decided that they no longer saw themselves as Democrats. There was all kinds of affiliation-switching before October 6. For example, the New Hampshire Bulletin reported that 719 people switched from Republican to undeclared and 132 people switched from undeclared to Republican.
Despite, the RINOs and Democrats voting as Independents to help make the elections look like Nikki Haley has a chance, she lost by 10 points. It will probably, take the humiliation of losing badly in South Carolina as the Never Trumpers and RINOs egg her on to keep fighting. And lose badly, she will. South Carolina will not have those so called Independents voting for her to try and keep it close. So, it is only going to be Republicans voting RINOs included, of course but, the RINOs are a very tiny fringe. She is not going to win the Republican nomination and it is only her ego keeping her in it by a thread.