Trump 2024
- Thread starter wildchild
- Start date
He's gonna take away your guns.
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...the-guns-first-go-through-due-process-second/
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...the-guns-first-go-through-due-process-second/
Lest see if the fundamentals follow(BLOOMBERG)
And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning
On Polymarket, Kamala Harris is now favored to win the Presidency after last night's Presidential debate. It's a notable change from pre-debate, when bettors were giving Trump around a 52% chance to win.
One thing I've been saying for awhile is that prediction markets are good for news consumption. When something like a debate happens, there's all kinds of things people take in. People watch the debate itself. People are likely following what their social media feeds say. People read the news. People listen to biased pundits, and so forth. And liquid prediction markets are yet another to add to that mix. It's one thing to hear someone on TV say "Kamala Harris won the debate", but it's hard to know what that means exactly. Seeing a market with millions of dollars on the line swing a few points (modestly, but clearly) says a little bit more.
Another nice thing about these markets is you can clearly see the link between what's going on with the Presidential race and certain politics-sensitive asset classes. Here's Bitcoin slipping right at the same time as Trump's odds.
One objection you could make is that it's still all "horse race" stuff, that just like following polls, none of it matters until election day, and right now the betting markets could be wrong. And that's true. But if the Presidential election race is spilling into other markets, then to some extent swings in perception are inevitably going to matter. You know, all markets can be "wrong". Traders can bid up a stock on expectation of good earnings, and then earnings disappoint. This happens all the time. But of course, in the meantime, on the way to be wrong, money is still made and lost while the stock goes in various directions.
So if you have any sort of short- or medium-term interest in markets, and if you want to benchmark your own views against conventional wisdom, or just see where conventional wisdom stands right now with respect to the Presidential election, then these betting markets are useful tools.
Will polls show any effect
If polls dont change then this market will snap back
Ok but any time I post anything related to polls it is for all those folks who care about such things.
I don't, only the poll on election day..
Drudge says debate was ‘The End’ for Trump
https://www.yahoo.com/news/drudge-says-debate-end-trump-143346201.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/drudge-says-debate-end-trump-143346201.html
(SEMAFOR)
World governments react to US debate
Brian Snyder/Reuters
The first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sparked strong reactions from world leaders and diplomats, with many agreeing that Harris had the better night. Germany pushed back against Trump’s criticism of its green energy transition, and one lawmaker said Harris made Trump seem “like an aging incumbent, old, angry and confused.” Hungarian politicians approved of Trump’s lavish praise of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, but one EU diplomat said it didn’t matter because “no one in the US knows” who Orbán is. China, meanwhile, refrained from directly commenting on the debate, while a Kremlin spokesperson compared the candidates to boxers sparring on the Titanic: “Who won? Does it mean anything? There’s only 15 minutes left until the iceberg.”
They must have left out that the Iceberg is ..... Ukraine.
World governments react to US debate
Brian Snyder/Reuters
The first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sparked strong reactions from world leaders and diplomats, with many agreeing that Harris had the better night. Germany pushed back against Trump’s criticism of its green energy transition, and one lawmaker said Harris made Trump seem “like an aging incumbent, old, angry and confused.” Hungarian politicians approved of Trump’s lavish praise of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, but one EU diplomat said it didn’t matter because “no one in the US knows” who Orbán is. China, meanwhile, refrained from directly commenting on the debate, while a Kremlin spokesperson compared the candidates to boxers sparring on the Titanic: “Who won? Does it mean anything? There’s only 15 minutes left until the iceberg.”
They must have left out that the Iceberg is ..... Ukraine.
Behind the Curtain: Trump's big, unfixable, glaring glitch (msn.com)
.................
Four reasons Trump cannot and will not change, according to friends and advisors:
.................
Four reasons Trump cannot and will not change, according to friends and advisors:
- He's haunted. He can't stand being seen as a loser. So it's impossible to fully admit he didn't win in 2020. He looks to distractions like crowd size and adoring coverage for solace. So, seemingly silly taunts — like Harris' "people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom" — hit deep.
- He falls for fake news. For a guy who made "fake news" a household term, he falls for it often and easily. It wasn't hard to learn that the allegations of Haitians eating pet dogs and cats were silly and wrong. But far-right activist Laura Loomer was on the plane ride to the debate with him, egging him on.
- He's old. A wise man told us three types of people never change: Old guys. Rich guys. Guys with their names on the building. So the chances that Trump — a 78-year-old, self-proclaimed billionaire with his name on buildings, bottles and golf courses — will change are, um, nil.
- His bubble lies to him. All politicians live in self-protective bubbles. But Trump's, which extends from his social media cocoon to his Mar-a-Lago luxury, is almost impossible to penetrate with hard truths. There's always a Loomer to tell Trump he's winning ... even when he's not.