Trump 2020

[Tony Stark]

Funny you should mention felons voting in Florida. A guy I know just got his voting rights restored in Florida where I live and he is now a registered Republican. It will be interesting to see if turnout changes in Florida in 2020.

The higher the turn out the better it is for Democrats,thats why republicans work so hard to suppress the vote.Republicans won the FL governors and senate race by 33,000 and 10,000 votes.Allowing ex felons to vote makes 1.5 million people eligible to vote.I think huge changes are coming in Florida elections just like it did Virgina.

 

[Tsing Tao]

The higher the turn out the better it is for Democrats,thats why republicans work so hard to suppress the vote.Republicans won the FL governors and senate race by 33,000 and 10,000 votes.Allowing ex felons to vote makes 1.5 million people eligible to vote.I think huge changes are coming in Florida elections just like it did Virgina.

Ah the Tony Stark prediction posts. Always so much fun in retrospect.

I think Hillary is up by 5-10 points easily.Obama beat Romney by 4 points and 126 electoral votes and Hillary is doing better now than Obama was at this point in 2012 by nearly every measure.Hillary is winning more polls than Obama was in 2012,Hillary has a higher polling average than Obama had in 2012.Obama's approval ratings are higher now than they were in 2012.Hillary's betting market numbers are 15 points higher than Obama's was in 2012.Hillary is 15 points higher in Nate Silver's model than Obama was.There are fewer white voters now than in 2012,there are more minority voters now then there were in 2012.The economy is better now than 2012.Trump is far more hated than Romney etc,etc, etc.If Obama won by 4 it is very likely Hillary is up 7 to 10 points are more.

Damn,Hillary might even take NC and thats not one she was aiming for.

It makes perfect sense.

Trump is not nearly tied with Hillary in the polls.Hillary is ahead in around 29 of the last 30 RCP polls.Hillary's RCP average is + 5 points.In 2012 Obama's RCP average was in the + 1 to + 3 point range most of the time .Obama's final RCP average was only + 0.7 but he won by + 4 (RCP polls skew heavily toward the Republican candidate).

Hillarys RCP average is nearly twice what Obamas was and increased Hispanic and Black support is part of the reason.Obama proved to be 3 points higher than The RCP average and Hillary probably is too.

And on and on and on and on and on....