True Truths about Fibonacci

Some of you seems to have totally no intuition of probability (I will show another day an experience from a statistician at high school engineering in France that even scientific students have poor intuition of probability although they have high ability as for calculation because it is 2 things that are different). In that case one should know that the law of probability of low and high (or minimum or maximum) are highly unstable statistically for stochastic law much more than for the average of a sample of course (for example outliers are not rare see the statistical course below for meteorologists which deals much with unstable law also) that's why Mandelbrott and other researchers have to look for another sort of model to estimate risks so when you can predict lows and bottoms sequences especially outliers within a few points precision it is highly improbable that it is due to chance but as I said for scientific proof above all it must be repeatable so that the probability tend towards 0 that it is due to random guess - and my model can prove that it is repeatable. Now for the demonstration purpose I will reserve it for scientists - I've been in a scientific group recently and I intend to present them some proofs in a few months - for practical trading being able to demonstrate means a systematic and more precise approach and new discoveries are possible to improve traditional TA especially for those using fibo or elliott empirically. For example in elliott since all depends on the wave 1 if it is estimated subjectively everything then follows good or bad results whereas if wave 1 is determined without subjectivity results are less random and more precise.

For a refresher on statistical law see for example this website :
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/courses/Stats/course/node13.html
where it is said that
"the extreme minimum and maximum values .. is an example of a statistic that is not at all resistant to the presence of an outlier "

Quote from harrytrader:

That's the point : my model DOES NOT use Fibonacci it is not based on NUMEROLOGY like Fibonacci it is based on ECONOMETRIC MODELISATON ... I already said like you that if you use Fibonacci you have multiple combinations possible but it is not the case of my model. For example my bottom at 8874 (see line
26 proj min base: 9042.13 proj: 8874.78 27:00 (42:30)) is UNIQUE. Since it is unique I am able to say if Fibo is an illusion or not but those who only use Fibo cannot make such a proof or very difficultly. So next I will show how it is possible to demonstrate if Fibo is true or not.

Secondly when you calcute retracement in fibo you do it AFTER the market has already made a top or a low, whereas my points are calculated BEFORE market opens, before even GLOBEX's opening so it is true forecast whereas fibo retracement can ressemble curve fitting since one can chose arbitrarily any high and low as you put it. So it is only with a true model INDEPENDANT of fibo (that is to say that doesn't use any fibo numbers or ratios as parameters at input) that you can judge if fibo retracement is pure imagination or not.

As for that precise day many elliotists were surprised by this bottom whereas from the point of view of my model this is the easiest day for novices to trade because when market made such a bottom he is much more clean than other days like Thursday when he is consolidating (a day likeThursday should be avoided by novices).
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As you can see we made a big rallye from this bottom as confirmed by my post before next session:

From: harrytrader2000
Date: Wed Jul 2, 2003 2:26 pm
Subject: Potential bottom on daily scale hit @ 8871 Theo 8874
Hello,

Yesterday the Dow has hit a low at 8871 and the extreme projection on
hourly scale was 8874. Above all the low of daily scale was 8880 on
spot supported by the Feynman level at 8870 on future model chart on
scale 2 also. So prepare for a potential corrective rally to retest
the previous top of the year or even more.

see http://tinyurl.com/ftoj


Quote from harrytrader:


As for that precise day many elliotists were surprised by this bottom whereas from the point of view of my model this is the easiest day for novices to trade because when market made such a bottom he is much more clean than other days like Thursday when he is consolidating (a day likeThursday should be avoided by novices).
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Whereas Pi is a transcendental number that is too say purely abstract because it cannot be represented physically (mathematically it is not a root of polynom with rational coefficients) Phi is less abstract and can be represented this can explain partly why Phi attracts so many artists.

Everybody has heard about the film PI, whereas traders generally use PHI. I say generally because some (like Martin Armstrong and of course Gann) uses PI relating to time although it is rather in metaphorical sense. My model shows that price and time are not independant, PHI is linked to price, PI is linked to time, is there a link between PHI and PI ?

Yeah ladies and gentlemen you will be happy to learn the existence of "THE MAGNIFICENT PERFECT SQUARE" relation between these two irrational numbers here :D

http://members.ispwest.com/r-logan/fullbook.html
 
Gee I still didn't explain the fractals within my model I feel so lazy. Further more I will be travelling next few weeks so I'm not sure I would have time to finish this thread soon since I have things to do this we. If not I will finish it when I'll come back.

Quote from harrytrader:

Before you should read this article from Mandelbrott on Prechter's site - which disputes for Elliott the paternity of fractals in stock market that's why this article from Scientific American is on his site :D I will comment on the funny Mandelbrotts/Prechter dispute (see http://www.elliottwave.com/mandelbrot-bobsletter.htm) in another thread one day with "an open letter to Mr Prechter in defense of Mr Mandelbrott" :) -

A Multifractal Walk Down Wall Street

"The geometry that describes the shape of coastlines and the patterns of galaxies also elucidates how stock prices soar and plummet."

by Benoit B. Mandelbrot



http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm
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Quote from -EntropyTrader:

Prechter wrote this book:
Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression.
Anybody read this book. This guy is really bearish.
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Prechter wrote a book in the early nineties predicting the collapse in 1995 and he was still selling it in 1996. I was a newbie and forked out cash for it, that was my first lesson in how much bullshit there is when it comes to economics and trading. Now he wrote this latest one and you never would have heard of it except he got on the Art Bell show and it put his book on the best seller list at Amazon for a while.

He has a few followers still because he was right about things from the 80's up till the mid nineties.

Max
 
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