True Truths about Fibonacci

harrytrader · Jun 28, 2003

Before you should read this article from Mandelbrott on Prechter's site - which disputes for Elliott the paternity of fractals in stock market that's why this article from Scientific American is on his site

I will comment on the funny Mandelbrotts/Prechter dispute (see http://www.elliottwave.com/mandelbrot-bobsletter.htm) in another thread one day with "an open letter to Mr Prechter in defense of Mr Mandelbrott"

-

A Multifractal Walk Down Wall Street

"The geometry that describes the shape of coastlines and the patterns of galaxies also elucidates how stock prices soar and plummet."

by Benoit B. Mandelbrot

http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm

Quote from harrytrader:

Today's session will be an excellent illustration as well as the other 4 days of the week but I will take this last day since it will be fresh in memory. I will profit to prepare a complete tutorial I will post that Sunday or Monday - if I'm not lazy it will be done before.

harrytrader · Jun 28, 2003

Finally I won't post the whole tutorial here I forgot will be accused to promote my stuff here

. I will just show the part that shows that fibonacci is not an illusion which is the subject of this thread.

Quote from harrytrader:

Before you should read this article from Mandelbrott on Prechter's site - which disputes for Elliott the paternity of fractals in stock market that's why this article from Scientific American is on his site I will comment on the funny Mandelbrotts/Prechter dispute (see http://www.elliottwave.com/mandelbrot-bobsletter.htm) in another thread one day with "an open letter to Mr Prechter in defense of Mr Mandelbrott" -

A Multifractal Walk Down Wall Street

"The geometry that describes the shape of coastlines and the patterns of galaxies also elucidates how stock prices soar and plummet."

by Benoit B. Mandelbrot

http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm

MACD · Jun 28, 2003

There are many books and "systems" in the marketplace to trade the Fibonacci ratios and patterns. To use the word "simple" has truly not been a word one would attach to these methods. In fact, most require months if not years of study to allow traders to really benefit and have an adequate understanding of the system.

This is unfortunate since this is a very viable method of trading which may be demonstrated beyond the most astute level of critical examination.

Luckily a new book addressing exactly your interest in "simplicity" has been published. That book is "The Step-by-Step Guide to Profitable Pattern Trading". I don't want to be accused of selling anything so if you want more information regarding the book please PM me and I shall share where to obtain it and who the author and publisher is. The book is brand new and is not yet available from most booksellers. It is the best explanation without the usual convoluted and tortuous presentation of these Fibonacci based systems...

murray t turtle · Jun 28, 2003

Quote from Walther:

Is there any simple trading method based on these ratios ?
Walter

========================================== Walter;
[50]I like to watch for a 50% number,in a context of Harry trader quote-
''If I am not lazy i will do it''

[5] Over 5 months ago Ed Seykota wrote ''No charge''
Trader Ed likes plays on electric words + no personal debt

[5:25 pm] Frankly, didnt understand some of what Gene Weissman of E-Brokerage LLC wrote ;
however Love + trade his expresson '' adjustment at the end of the day''[trading day]

Too simple for some but I like a complex # of moving averages and
the simple book''Technical Analysis Simplified'' by Cliff Droke

[5:35 approximately PM]
''Be diligent ,[be careful'']- Solomon ,trader king

chasinfla · Jun 28, 2003

I think that, by the term "principle of economy," the author means a 'principal of efficiency,' not so much as of 'economics.' For examples, people speak of 'economies of scale,' referring to something quite different than 'economics.'

Is this relevant? I don't know. It's been a while since I posted, so I'm rusty.

harrytrader · Jun 28, 2003

yes it is economy in its extended sense : it means efficiency so evrybody's ok since that's what I mean also. But the important thing is that economy or efficiency here is for the INTERNAL system not for the EXTERNAL users of the system. So when I say that my model follows this principal of economy it means economy or efficiency of the market FOR THE MARKET and not for the crowd which are external to the market. By market I mean the so-called invisible hand which makes the magic efficiency for himself not for the majority I repeat because that is what is flawed in the official paradigm and prevents researchers to go further than toys models or complex but irrealistic models. This is in fact the domain of Operational Research a subbranch of military-mathematical-economy which studies optimality of monopolist system and the market is organised by monopolists. I was inspired by Operational Research because I come from a Petroleum Engineering School where it was much used to fix and optimise the production of petroleum products.

Quote from chasinfla:

I think that, by the term "principle of economy," the author means a 'principal of efficiency,' not so much as of 'economics.' For examples, people speak of 'economies of scale,' referring to something quite different than 'economics.'

Is this relevant? I don't know. It's been a while since I posted, so I'm rusty.

jeffrey3 · Jun 28, 2003

I have just subsribed to an end of day data service and I would like to get data on most liquid stocks which have LIQUID OPTIONS.

Fortuna posted on Fibo thread that he does this.

Fortuna and others would you kindly give me a list of such stocks in a decending order?

You can send me a PM if it is going to take up too much space here.

Thank You

harrytrader · Jun 29, 2003

Today I will only post the images I will comment them another day.

On daily scale the market was projecting after Thursday close for unit time one (that is to say next day or Friday) 8989 on spot model (green color background) and 8978 on future model (magenta color background).

<IMG SRC=http://harrytrader.membres.jexiste.org/dji_260603_for_270603_01.gif>

Of course the market never follows a straight line (if so everybody would know it

) so we must look at lower scale for the details and you can foresee that the market followed roughly the form that was forecasted and if you look at the values projected that was closed to the last two highs :

<IMG SRC=http://harrytrader.membres.jexiste.org/dji_260603_for_270603_02.gif>

The purpose is not here to make a forecast of the market like I did the other week so next time I will focus on explaining how it relates to Mandelbrott fractal model on one side and to elliott wave framework on the other side (I reserve here the term model in a restrictive sense for scientific model and use rather the term framework for more general approach).

Quote from harrytrader:

Before you should read this article from Mandelbrott on Prechter's site - which disputes for Elliott the paternity of fractals in stock market that's why this article from Scientific American is on his site I will comment on the funny Mandelbrotts/Prechter dispute (see http://www.elliottwave.com/mandelbrot-bobsletter.htm) in another thread one day with "an open letter to Mr Prechter in defense of Mr Mandelbrott" -

A Multifractal Walk Down Wall Street

"The geometry that describes the shape of coastlines and the patterns of galaxies also elucidates how stock prices soar and plummet."

by Benoit B. Mandelbrot

http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm

harrytrader · Jun 30, 2003

Nevertheless just briefly we have reached the projection 1 on weekly scale and you can see on daily scale that there is an other maxima on blue line (this entity can be interpreted as consolidation curve-line) at 9165 for the nearest. So the bear very short term (today's session) should be careful to not get too excited by Friday's session which was for achieving an uncomplete target you can see on the model of futures in magenta (picture 2) at 8960 (truncated by projection ten at 8969 with what I called Feynman-like effect referring to an analogy with quantum-mechanical effect but it is just an analogy or metaphore there is no physical link between these two phenomena).

Quote from harrytrader:

The purpose is not here to make a forecast of the market like I did the other week so next time ...
[/B]

Walther · Jun 30, 2003

Harry,
I have a suggestion. Can you put time on those green and purple charts ? It would be much more easier to understand if time on a price chart was coresponding with time on green and purple graphs.
Thanks,
Walter