Triple witching day and hour...

C

Cabin111

Today (as I write this) is Thursday. Tomorrow is a major option expiration day (as you know...If you don't know, you should NOT be trading options).
Has anyone figured out which way the market (or an individual stock) will go on the last day/hour of trading?? Any tells that can be seen?? I avoid this day like the plague...It will be what it will be. My guess is over 1/2 the time wrong...So I let the chips fall where they may...

Does high volume early in the day mean anything? Does the direction of the market early in the day mean anything? What amount of positions get cleared the week of, the day of, the last hour, or on Saturday...The next day?

I would appreciate any insight (well correct insight) on this one...
 
tiddlywinks said:
Excuse me, but Triple Witching is NOT this Friday.
Triple Witching... Stock options, index futures, options on index futures.
More...

Yeah, you are correct...Always get Dec/Jan mixed up on major days. Was thinking more of major leap expiring dates. Any insight into major leap days...Jan/June third Fridays??
 
Yeah, I knew it...Had forgot for a minute. Can't take it back. My mind is/was on leaps. 70-80% of my options are over say 9 months out...
 
It's now the Sunday after that Friday, and nobody has answered your questions.

For me, past trades show I have more success on Friday's, monthly's, and 3x Witching. I look forward to them. I want to also point out that I'm not a pro and still an amateur to beginner.

I find there's no hard rule at least with SPY. There's a lot of, if "this" happens, then the probability is high that "that" happens. What happened the previous day, days? Market sentiment? Where's open interest and how much? Where's volume and how much? How is the market reacting to price? Who's getting trapped? Who's puking?

There's frequently a magnetic attraction towards a direction, but then sometimes something happens mid day to change things all together. The magnetic attraction I find to be more common on Friday's than other days, and more common on monthlies than weeklies.

I'm hesitant to share precise details because, A. this would turn into a novel, B. I'm not always right in how I trade the day (although my success is better than on other days).

If you don't do well on these days, I would suggest not even trying to figure it out, and instead focus on what you do well.
 
Avis Budget (CAR) Sell to open $35. Jan 2020
Call expired on Friday...Didn't know whether to buy it back or hold. Some you win on Fridays...Some you lose. I can write another covered call sometime this next week.
Notice the close...
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34.99 USD −0.89 (2.48%)

Closed: Jan 17, 5:45 PM EST · Disclaimer
After hours 34.99 0.00 (0.00%)
35.22 USD ‎11:05 AM
Open 36.05
High 36.09
Low 34.77
Mkt cap 2.58B
P/E ratio 15.38
Div yield 1.31%
Prev close 35.88
52-wk high 37.27
52-wk low 23.86
 
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