Triple top on S&P, are we at a top?

[1a2b3cppp]

This is the biggest scale there is. You can't zoom out any more.

 

[Wide Tailz]

1900-present, DJIA:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

If anything, it looks more like the range in the 10's and 70's that eventually broke out.

 

[KMAX]

maybe. Also, the cyclicals have been weak. But looking the spy chart I don't see a volume spike that usually shows up at tops.

 

[semiopen]

It could be a double bottom as opposed to a triple top.

My current impression is that the chart is bullish, maybe suggestng a move to 2100 or so on the S&P and 17,000 on the Dow.

Admittedly, at first glance it looks scary.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from semiopen:

It could be a double bottom as opposed to a triple top.

My current impression is that the chart is bullish, maybe suggestng a move to 2100 or so on the S&P and 17,000 on the Dow.

Admittedly, at first glance it looks scary.

Wouldn't it have been a double bottom back in 2009?

Also, can a double bottom be sloped down like that?

 

[semiopen]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Wouldn't it have been a double bottom back in 2009?

Also, can a double bottom be sloped down like that?

The market made a convincing reaction off the double bottom in 2009 to get where it is now.

The down slope of the bottoms seems trivial to me, sort of a head fake.

Chart patterns of this size are very rare, but it probably means as much as similar shorter term formations. Which is not too much. A bullish view of this has paid off recently however.

I've studied this chart quite a bit and thought it was a poster boy for impending disaster. I changed my mind last summer.

 

[Scataphagos]

Many express their opinion about the ultimate resolution of this pattern...

1. Nobody knows... players just express their "gut"

2. If SP 1600 holds, that's a HUGE triple-top.... maybe declining back to some formation involving prior big lows.

3. If SP 1600 breaks above and holds, 1600 can be used as a sensible stop point.

Suggest..... trade with your eyes, not your gut.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from semiopen:

The market made a convincing reaction off the double bottom in 2009 to get where it is now.

The "2009 sloppy 2X bottom" was a decision from 4 years ago. Has nothing to do with now. The "possible 3X top @ ~1600" is the currently operative play.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from semiopen:

The market made a convincing reaction off the double bottom in 2009 to get where it is now.

The down slope of the bottoms seems trivial to me, sort of a head fake.

Chart patterns of this size are very rare, but it probably means as much as similar shorter term formations. Which is not too much. A bullish view of this has paid off recently however.

I've studied this chart quite a bit and thought it was a poster boy for impending disaster. I changed my mind last summer.

What I meant was knowing now that there was a double bottom 3 years ago doesn't help.

Identifying it then may have helped.

 

[semiopen]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

What I meant was knowing now that there was a double bottom 3 years ago doesn't help.

Identifying it then may have helped.

It's easiest to see patterns after they have formed.

You misidentify the current pattern as a triple top. If the S&P would reverse from the up trend at this point, we would have a triple top. It hasn't done that.

Like I said, I think the pattern is bullish. In any case, I'll trade bullishly until there is evidence of a reversal.