Triple bottoms are rare: its game over

Quote from forex-forex:

I'm still thinking of buying YM mini dow futures Sunday night and holding on for the Monday bounce, no stops. Could be a 100 point bounce.
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Why no stops?
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

Don't know why anybody would want to buy Citigroup friday;
unless they were buying to exit/get out of Citigroup downtrend & simply liked to be early rather than late.
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I'll tell you what - I haven't been watching the markets intraday for years like some of you guys, but that action in C on Friday morning was instructive. Stock has been weak for the past xx weeks. It had been trading off since 8:30 a.m. but when the market opened, it went straight up to $29.00 as the markets tanked. I would love to know who was buying it up like that for the first 15 minutes. Shorts, either daytrades or long term, aren't covering after that pre-market (maybe at $28.89 but not where we were at 9:30). 7MM shares. Who was buying into what appeared to be shaping up as down? Not daytraders like the guys on here who are always saying 'gap and trap, gap and trap'.

Bigger holders who are underwater and are trying (perhaps emotionally) to average down? Big money making a big mistake, as suggested above, or smart money buying when blood is running in the streets?
 
Quote from forex-forex:

I'm still thinking of buying YM mini dow futures Sunday night and holding on for the Monday bounce, no stops. Could be a 100 point bounce.
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I will sell them to you :)
 
Quote from MKTrader:
Since when has a 10% correction been a "bear market"?

You could certainly call the last year's action a sideways market, but it hasn't been a bear by any measure or definition....
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My thoughts exactly.
 
Quote from traderNik:

I'll tell you what - I haven't been watching the markets intraday for years like some of you guys, but that action in C on Friday morning was instructive. Stock has been weak for the past xx weeks. It had been trading off since 8:30 a.m. but when the market opened, it went straight up to $29.00 as the markets tanked. I would love to know who was buying it up like that for the first 15 minutes. Shorts, either daytrades or long term, aren't covering after that pre-market (maybe at $28.89 but not where we were at 9:30). 7MM shares. Who was buying into what appeared to be shaping up as down? Not daytraders like the guys on here who are always saying 'gap and trap, gap and trap'.

Bigger holders who are underwater and are trying (perhaps emotionally) to average down? Big money making a big mistake, as suggested above, or smart money buying when blood is running in the streets?
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I have developed, over the years, a few different indirect ways of trying to detect large/insider buying, and I'm seeing strong signs of both in the financials in general and C in particular.
However, these guys do trade with long timeframes, and I remember seeing or reading somewhere that insiders are generally early both getting in and getting out, so...be careful out there.
 
Quote from Ticketwatcher:

<p>Although I have invested and traded in many ways, today I am but a very humble day trader. And I have no evidence other than that observation in my post, to believe the long term trend in the financials is anything but down. But as a trader you always have to be prepared for anything. People talk about fear and panic selling, but I also believe that there can be fear or panic buying as well. People who have the big positions see their positions put at such risk that they become so panicked they see nothing left to do but to irrationally buy. Of course, I am referring to the oil money that is in Citibank. The Saudis have been buying for years and how much of their position is below the current price is not known. A couple of decades ago, the Japanese got slaughtered buying NYC commercial real estate at the top. To me the oil money in the financials is the most interesting of questions. The mythology has always been that the oil money has been smart money. It looks like Citigroup will be an ultimate test of just how smart the oil money is. And will there be accelerated selling or will there be something akin to my pipe dream of something called panic buying. If the oil money did try to rescue Citigroup from a further downside, would we see a sell off in gold, where supposedly a lot of oil money is parked?
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Would it not make the most sense in the world for them to buy financials in a big oil dependent economy when oil is priced at ridiculous levels, its a perfect hedge, its not like the price of oil can climb forever, if it does not, so much money must be ready to chase anything but real estate and besides so much will change when the oil tax disappears.
 
Quote from detective:
The market will give you a 2nd chance but rarely a 3rd. Triple bottoms are very rare, after bouncing off of S&P 1400-1410 support area in August and November, we are back again to the support zone. This time, there will be no looking back as support is violated and we head towards new 52 week lows.
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So next time it gets to 12500 it will be a quadruple bottom. How rare is that? Each time it hits support, the support gets stronger, they say.
 
If you connect the March and August lows together on weekly chart, today's intraday low made a perfect bounce off the long-term trendline. I've been watching for that (bounce off 1375 to 1380) for a long time. I thought it might happen in November.

All in all, today was the best reversal day (hammer) since August 16 We'll see what happens from here...
 
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