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Triple bottoms are rare: its game over
- Thread starter detective
- Start date
I think this market is going to trade range bound like it has, breaking 14k anytime soon and going to new highs to me right now is about a 5% chance over the next 12 months, not going to happen. I think shorting right now could be somewhat risky, I see a bounce over the next few days.
As for the start of the new year, the dow has had its worst start since 1932. So many were pumping these markets up in the last qu of 2007 that you thought there was no where to go but up, now that this has turned around many are thinking that this market has no where to go but down. Earnings have been lowered across the board, mostly due to the financials, there is even talk of about an additional $100 billion worth of write downs, if this is true the markets could easily see another 10% drop in my opinion. Right now I would would sit tight, I think the DOW back below 11500 would be a great buying opportunity.
As for the start of the new year, the dow has had its worst start since 1932. So many were pumping these markets up in the last qu of 2007 that you thought there was no where to go but up, now that this has turned around many are thinking that this market has no where to go but down. Earnings have been lowered across the board, mostly due to the financials, there is even talk of about an additional $100 billion worth of write downs, if this is true the markets could easily see another 10% drop in my opinion. Right now I would would sit tight, I think the DOW back below 11500 would be a great buying opportunity.
This is joke.
Quote from stocktrader2007:
This is a joke.
Looks like someone's longs are under water.
: )
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=113446]
it's likely that the market will give it a quick and short bounce before it resumes it's way to the downside... what worries me the most is that there's nothing positive (or was there ever) that can take the market up --- why will any rate drop helps... apparently the unemployment in the USA is getting close to 3rd world countries...
http://www.tradeforgain.com/market-...-high-how-does-it-compare-to-other-countries/
so, I guess down is the way to go at the moment.
http://www.tradeforgain.com/market-...-high-how-does-it-compare-to-other-countries/
so, I guess down is the way to go at the moment.
Quote from dsq:
my broken record mantra: market is selling at near historically low PE ratios...bear markets dont start at these levels...even with contracting earnings,its being reflected in the p/e ratio...
you're sadly mistaken. the p/e of the sp500 is currently 16, which is the historic average. its historic lows are at 6.
whether a bear market will begin now, i don't know, because it depends on more than just the p/e.
by the way, for much of the 1973-1977 period, the sp500's p/e was at or below its average, but during that time the market was flat or declining. so don't think that a low p/e means you're out of the woods.