For a long time the bull case has been growth will sustain us. Growth and thus earnings will be the solid pillar that will stop debt service from crushing the economy. Well when I see the Sox clearly break a multi year uptrend line on the monthly charts in the 1st week of January alone I think that perhaps the growth case is cracked. I also look at the Sox because it tends to lead in the economic cycle as you would expect.
Even the $SPX closed below significant trendline today.
I don't know what will happen on the open Monday but it looks fairly clear that the the uptrend is in jeopardy.
What will it mean if today Bush says the markets are great and strong (on a day were we have a 2% sell off, another one of GWB's classics) an on Monday or later this month comes out with a radical stimulus package? Is there anyone at the helm that know what the hell they are doing? This is a worry for the markets, there is real uncertainty as the picture is not clear, too many games being played across the board. The news today of MA looking in to MER sales of CDO to the city of Springfeild could be the beginning of the widely anticipated cascade of lawsuits WS will face for its unsound investment advice (selling a city that is in bad shape financially and need to be very conservative an investment that has lost 91% of its value in 12 months, 14M to 1.2M!)